. a super tuesday unlike any other. >> i'm being indicted for you. >> primary contests in over a dozen states. >> yes, i'm going to keep on

fighting. >> genuine drama across the country as the front-runner for the republican nomination indicted on 91 felonies. nevertheless, remains the prohibited favorite. >> i want to start by thanksing the supreme court. >> and his final primary opponent says justice should proceed. >> tonight special election coverage. nicole wallace, joy reid, jen psaki, lawrence o'donnell, stephanie ruhle all here. hakeem jefferies joining us. mitch landreau plus the campaign experts and steve kornacki with results and analysis a the the big board. >> the election of 2024 has kind of taken shape. special election of super tuesday primaries begins now.

>> it's here. it's finally happening. it's super. good evening and welcome. thank you for joining us. it is super tuesday. i haven't slept in a week. i'm rachel maddow and nicole wallace, you're back. we've missed you so much. and ari melber. many more of our colleagues are going to be joining us throughout the very, very long, awesome, interesting night. america has not had a rerun of the same two presidential candidates in back-to-back subsequent elections since 1956 when the incumbent president dwight eisenhower beat his democratic challenger adley stevenson. eisenhower won by kind of a lot. when they ran stevenson against eisenhower again in the next election in '56, eisenhower won again except he won by more.

nevertheless, the republican party seems poised to nominate the same candidate again but donald trump does have a republican primary opponent who is, as of this moment, holding on. tonight is an important one for her. we will have more on that. it's 6 p.m. on the east coast and voters are casting ballots. we are just getting our first super tuesday results though from iowa. in iowa the democratic caucus has never been on super tuesday before tonight. famously iowa is the first in the nation and it goes on january. this year it was conducted by mail. we have gotten the results and we have a call. tonight we have the call.

joe biden has won the iowa democratic caucus. all the suspense is over there. incumbent president biden is universally expected to clean up in states like iowa and in all of tonight's democratic primaries. the first real votes out of iowa. we'll go to our friend steve kornacki to see if there's anything more we should understand. president biden faces only token opposition, the democratic contest, as you know, it basically looks like what it looks like when an incumbent president runs for re-election. so far president biden's delegate count is 246 delegates for him and 2 or uncommitted. on the republican side with 15 states holding gop nominations tonight, just over 1/3 of all of the delegates are at stake.

nikki haley won her first primary in washington, d.c. if she has a chance of winning any other contests tonight, her campaign is expecting the best chances actually in the two states that are going to close their polls first. right at the end of this hour. virginia and especially vermont they think are nikki hailey's best chances. below the presidential though there's a whole lot going on down ballot. for the u.s. senate seat once held by the late dianne feinstein in california, democrats and republicans will run against each other in the same jungle primary. on the democratic side, there are three well respected, talented members on the ballot along with the republicans competing for it as well. tonight's senate primary in california will determine whether the general election for the senate seat will be between a democrat and republican or could it be an intraparty battle between two of those powerhouse

democrats? we will learn that tonight in california. primaries will set the profile for the highest governor's race. the governor of north carolina has a history of holocaust denial. he said the moon landing may have been faked. he said beyonce is say tan anything. the civil rights movement is, i quote, cracked. his name is mark robinson. his track record is out there even by the standards of today's republican party. that is really saying something. that said north carolina republicans may choose him as their candidate for governor. we shall see. the likely democratic candidate for governor in north carolina would be that state's attorney general who has twice been elected statewide in north carolina even though in both of those elections donald trump won north carolina on the same ballot. so we shall see. north carolina should be

fascinating tonight. polls will close there very soon, 7:30 p.m. eastern. a whole bunch of congressional races and house primaries setting the stage for november. we haven't been focusing on the balance of power in congress but it is tenuous. the house is in the hands of the republicans thanks to the tiniest margin that you can imagine, two seats. it is entirely possible tonight, it is even likely tonight that there will be more than two house members who lose their seats in primary contests during our coverage this evening. so, as with every election night, we do not know exactly what to expect but we know enough to expect to be surprised. let's start with steve kornacki at the big board. steve, we already got our first result tonight in iowa. is there anything we should know about that? what else are you looking forward to covering over the course of the night? >> i would love to create some

drama but the story is there is no story. getting the results from the state party and filling in the counties. you might see them start to light up filling them in. we think this is basically it for iowa. an eventless democratic primary. 91% for joe biden. he will get all 40 delegates as you show it right there. that's what the delegate count will look like when all is said and done. we can shift to the republican side. let's go through the night here and some of the things we're looking at in chronological order here. the states that are going to be voting on the republican side. on the left you see the delegate count coming into tonight. the magic number on the republican side is 1215 to actually formally clinch the republican nomination. two poll closings. the first one is in the state of vermont. vermont is an interesting state tonight. what you see are these counties. they report out by city and town

in vermont. that's why you see so many municipalities on this map. a couple of things to know about vermont. let's take a look back at the 2016 republican primary results. the first time he ran for president he won vermont but barely won. he got 32.5%. nipping on his heels was john kasich. vermont is a deep blue state in general elections. it's an open primary. no party registration. anybody who wants to vote in this republican primary can vote in it. there's a moderate republican governor in vermont who has been outspoken in his criticism of donald trump. phil scott. a lot of this adds up to a lot of the ingredients nikki haley needs on paper to be competitive in a state. there are 17 delegates in

vermont. it's going to be a theme in all states. it's effectively a winner take all states. if somebody gets 50% of the votes plus one they get all of the delegates. in a lot of states there are candidates who have dropped out, minor candidates on the ballot. a close situation both could come under 50. basically these thresholds make states like vermont winner take all states. there are areas of strength on paper for trump. vermont has a large by vermont standards working class, a white population. white people without college degrees in rural areas. this area in vermont. >> they call it the northeast kingdom. this is a culturally distinct area of vermont. it was friendly towards barack obama but shifted towards donald trump. a section that got more republican with donald trump and stayed that way in 2020. expect trump to rack up big

margins here. we'll see. vermont is an interesting contest. the other state where polls are closing less than an hour from now is virginia. the same as vermont. very unimpressive. rubio at 32%. rubio thought he was going to win but he came very close. there's a big split. the northern suburbs of washington, d.c., and the suburbs of richmond and to some extent down into virginia beach area versus a few independent cities, the rest of the state. there are collectively large rural working class white populations. shenandoah valley. in the population centers

outside of washington, d.c., out of richmond you have the haley friendly, college plus, suburbanite voters. look here, hailey's biggest bright spot this primary season was over the weekend when she won the washington republican primary. she did win her. what's notable, one thing we've been tracking in the states just as a benchmark in state to state, the republican electorate is overwhelmingly white. we've been looking at the white population. the college/noncollege divide has been huge in the elections. washington, d.c., the white population of washington, d.c., 91% has at least a four-year college degree. that's as haley friendly a number as you're going to see anywhere. it explains the result in d.c.

what's interesting about virginia, let's zoom in here outside of washington, d.c. geographically this is tiny. if you go inside arlington county way back, way, way, way back was actually part of d.c. so it's -- this has really built up. this is d.c. extended in arlington, the city of alexandria right here. there's congressional districts in virginia. delegates are given out by congressional district for some of the virginia vote. it's virginia's eighth district. the white votership has a college degree. it's 80%, not quite d.c.'s level. three delegates in that district. haley, i think she'd be favored on paper to win in the eighth district. also here in fairfax county, which is the bigger piece of real estate here, big, densely populated areas, most of fairfax county, fairfax city in it, the

11th congressional district. 7 p 5% of the white population, college degrees. these are some of the highest numbers you'll see in the suburbs. loudoun county, we talked a lot about that in the 2021 republican primaries. just under 60% of the vote in that district that fits that haley profile. what does that add up to in virginia? three congressional districts that haley has a chance to win. if she can get a lot of crossover vote. virginia is an open primary. if they don't like trump and consider themselves independent, if they flood the polls in that part of the state around richmond, could that be enough to put the state in play for nikki haley? that's one to watch. you go into it tonight on paper, they are likely. in a dream scenario, she's on her way to winning vermont and she's looking like she might have a shot to win virginia.

that would be the shot she wants and that would open up other possibilities later in the night we can talk about. these are very good benchmarks in vermont and virginia and north carolina at 7:30. in these states if haley is performing very, very strongly, that could tell us something. if she isn't, that could tell us something, too. >> this is a little bit of a down and dirty question about the results you're talking about. thinking about the whole country looking at her campaign thinking of tonight as a crucible. one of the things she has to be wondering is does vermont count fast? does virginia count fast? are these results that are going to come in at 3 this morning and we're going to have seen a whole lot of bloodletting or are these results with a pretty early idea? >> virginia overall is an efficient count. that race was very competitive

if you recall, youngkin, mccall live. we had enough to call the state before midnight. if you are asking a haley specific question, at this point lickically in virginia, some of the last places to report. the closer you get to washington, d.c., the longer the wait has been. maybe that has changed. maybe we're in for a surprise. it's going to be the trump areas that would report earlier in virginia and haley chipping away at that. >> that would be close. we got ourselves in the 2020 election, one of the ways that we prepare for election nights -- the general election election night was thinking about the red mirage. thinking about what people's perceptions were going to be often the course of the night based on which results were likely to come in first. mail-in vote, early vote versus day of vote. there might be tiny microscopic version of that tonight in terms of a haley mirage with her two

best states coming in early. nicole, so happy to have you back. >> i'm still getting my sea legs on the day-to-day news. you've all taken time off to write books you really get hit on the side of the head with the forest. for me, there's something so heavy about what covering what could be the last election. trump is running on what he said, quote, i'll be a dictadic. the very preciousness, the reason we're all here tonight, the reason we all sit together on these nights is because there's something ma guess stick about over to you, voter, one

isn't running on a promise to have elections at all. >> when tim snyder said that, you may be voting to never vote again, that may be the vote that you cast is to never cast another vote again. what's the responsibility that the, you know, authoritarian has to you as a person who's never, ever going to come back to you for your vote. >> yeah. just the idea that in '16 we were so reliant on investigative journal belism. all of our shows were blown up the minute the "times" and the post had a massive scoop. there's nothing to investigate. trump's platform, this is what he's running from on the stump when he can't string a noun and a verb together. >> ari, this is your hour. we're stealing it to be together on your set. >> no better team. >> in terms of looking ahead tonight, obviously we know enough to know to expect some

surprises. i don't think anybody thinks the republican and democratic parties are going to pick anybody other than the obvious nominees at the end of the day, but nikki hailey's fate feels very undecided to me at this point. i definitely don't feel like there's an obvious course when she drops out, if she drops out, what she says when she does, what that means for the course of the race. i feel genuine interest and suspense in terms of what she decides to do with the money she's raised, the voters. >> absolutely. we've seen it morph from. it's something edging towards a wider criticism of protest.

that stuff matters. that's the electorate. then there's the law side and it will be intertwined for the whole year for reasons we know. on the law side, we know something we didn't know. there is not a schedule for donald trump to be convicted of a federal felony by the republican convention. for a long time there were republicans, card carrying republicans, not just somebody in vermont, no -- >> feel my email now. >> people at "the wall street journal," people who served in several administrations, people you know who are very conservative who are saying we've got to have a plan b in case he gets convicted. haley can hold that spot or hold the delegates. look, july 15th is the republican convention. the supreme court has stalled the main case, we've covered that. and the other jack hit documents case would be at the earliest late summer, maybe later than

that. the so while donald trump isn't through all this, he hasn't ducked all of this completely, the calendar has favored him because the judges have favored him because he picked many of them. so there we are. i do think that is different than a couple weeks ago where haley and the donors she needs to sustain a long race have a different view of where the exit is. >> the idea haley is the understudy is the way i've described it in the past. does have a practical description to it. it's not just that you need to be hanging around, it's that you need to be there at the convention. as you rightfully point out, there's nothing at least on the legal side that will happen before the convention that would active vat that, her as a plan g for the republicans, right, joy? >> it is sort of kind of fascinating to watch the mundane processes of democracy be used for the thing that nicole said. you know, i missed you so much, in part because you speak my

mind. i'm where you are. it is sort of interesting to watch these, this is what we do in every election. we all come and sit here with our friends and we talk about the elections and they're sort of mundane practices. does nikki haley have enough delegates to get to the convention and the things we're all -- >> which state is winner take all? >> which state is winner take all. we're sort of having that conversation. later on top of it is the fact that you have millions of people, hundreds of thousands per state who are using these mundane practices deliberately to dismantle democracy to install someone who's already said that we're never going to have elections again. it is interesting to watch the same voters who didn't believe in the election of joe biden and who think these practices are corrupt use them and believe in them because they believe that it will install him. and it is just sort of frequenty to watch them ignore the 91 criminal counts, ignore the

bizarre things that he says, the times when he doesn't sound like he knows where he is or who his -- who the president of the united states is. to watch all of these people ignore that as we're just sort of covering it in the way that we all cover it, it is a weird dichotomy for me for sure. >> one of the things that i'm sort of obsessed with is that you've got a situation which you've got a rematch between two candidates most likely and then there's these sort of tectonic shifts happening underneath them. we're running an experiment where we keep one things constant, the nominees, and other things shift. one of the defining features of american politics since 2016, particularly it's reflected all throughout western democracies is the intensification of educational polarization. you see it in austria. what's the base of the right wing party in austria? it's folks with what we call without a college degree, a huge bifurcation. when you see the populus right

in europe, south america, that base is the same base and it's that educational polarization is getting worse and more intense. we see it in every map reflected fractiley. you can pinpoint where haley voters are going to be. you look at the quotient with folks with degrees and advanced degrees. you run it against density, is it rural or urban. we've seen a long-term trend in which education polarization is coming to dominate everything else. one of the big questions the biden folks have to figure out is how to eat back away at that trend because that is the tide that is pulling them. it's the tide that is pulling a lot of liberal democracies away from some of those core principles and has been the sort of wind at the back of right wing authoritarian populist movements. >> how does biden appeal to pull the educated voters?

>> or just voters without college degrees which might be well educated in other ways. people that feel very differently about how well the bargain of america is working for them or the global economy working in the 21st century. we've seen that in other countries. that stuff matters a lot at the margins. 5 points, 6 points, 7 points, that's the whole ball game. >> i think the person who knows and will agree with you is bannon. that's why biden threatened that. >> he figured out a special -- he really did figure that out. not only did he figure that out, he has clearly governed with that in mind. if you look at where the investments have gone, from the bipartisan infrastructure bill, from the chips act and the ira, they have disproportionately gone to geographic areas that favor his opponent over him. >> economics? >> that's the question. there's a bet being made there, and the question is can you make good on that bet from a policy and messaging standpoint against

the pull of all these demographic trends that steve is going to highlight in map after map after map tonight where we will know before it comes up what the map's going to look like. >> yeah. the most repeated, most memorable talking point and detail that president biden himself and the democrats have talked about with the infrastructure bill is this is good jobs for people without college degrees. >> yes. >> there is one thing they have said about that is that over and over again. all right. at this hour we are coming up on more poll closings. just ahead we're going to hear from our correspondents in the states where it's all happening. super tuesday is just getting started and there is a lot more to come. stay with us. whoever gets into office, i hope and pray they do right by the people of america because our allies are looking at us and they are looking at what we are doing and what we are not doing and to work with them because we need our allies, our allies need

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donald trump should not be leading the republican party. i -- i mean, i can't say it enough. i think that he's -- i think his morals are completely misplaced and someone who -- who is paying off porn stars while his wife is at home pregnant, someone who

has been found guilty of sexual assault should not be leading the country. >> one voter in massachusetts speaking with nbc news earlier today. joining us from a polling location in greensboro, north carolina, is our friend, nbc correspondent shaquille brewster. shaq, you've been talking to people and watching things, how they're going. give us your impressions, the sort of business, pace you've been seeing and what you've been hearing from people who have been turning out to vote? >> rachel, at this particular polling location we've seen a steady flow of voters coming through. i'll send our photographer kevin inside as we see the action. we're about an hour away from when polls are expected to close. the chair here told me they've had 550 ballots so far. it might have updated since then, that was five minutes ago. the thing that's striking is here in north carolina it's not just the presidential race.

yes, that is definitely driving a lot of the attention here, but there's also a highly competitive governor's race. this is supposed to be the toughest or at least most competitive gubernatorial election in november. so the primary for that is very important for both parties and then there's down ballot congressional races. i want to bring in miss stacy here. you've an unaffiliated voter. one thing we want to know is what's on your mind? what are the issues most important to you? when you just went in and cast your ballot, what were you thinking about? what issues were they? >> two things of importance to me are definitely education and also health care. i am a nurse of 20 plus years and i work in the health care industry so those are two things that are very important to me. >> i know you don't want to get into the particular candidates that you choose, but when you say health care, that's a broad field. what are you thinking especially during a time when that's an issue that comes up over and over again from the politicians? >> specifically with me, i graduated a couple years ago with my master's in nursing

education and i am now having to pay that back and that is something that i have to consider. i have six kids and i want to be a good example to them and i think it's important to find that right person that understands the health care system and is willing to fight for that. >> education, what do you want to see? >> i can be very specific with that. my youngest is 6. she's in kindergarten and she suffers with a condition and she's seeing a developmental psychologist and the testing is almost impossible to get her the help that she needs. i've had kids in private school and public school. there are some good public schools here but i'm disappointed in the lack of services and options for her. so it's been a hard path because

i have one kid that never struggled and went to early college and be having to deal with this and see that there aren't resources available is really heartbreaking. >> take me through how you make your decision because when candidates come, you see the television ads, you hear the comments that they're making. i'm sure your mail was flooded with flyers. how do you decide where you ultimately go? what works for you? what are you listening to? >> the most important thing to me is do your research. you have to be educated. you have to come in here knowing exactly what your purpose is and be passionate about that. >> stacy, thank you for that. rachel, i'll send it back to you. >> shaq, thank you. that was a fascinating conversation. thanks to that voter. >> we couldn't have scripted that better in terms of giving us a window into the kind of stakes here and the ways voters are thinking about this, chris. >> i always love when we do these interviews. one of the things that's so

interesting is the mechanism by which people connect a problem they face in their lives. >> you have a kid who needs an iep in order to get the schooling they need. i know many, many parents, i'm sure all of us have friends or have experienced this personally. it can be a brutal process, right? then the question becomes like who's -- whose fault is that? who's responsible for that? >> this is bad now. >> i'm having a bad experience with it. i want something from my government it's not giving me. and then where do the different candidates stand on that question? and in order to get from a to b there's a whole bunch of steps in between. what do the different gubernatorial candidates say about spending on ieps in north carolina? to make all of that work, people need a press that works. you need to know which of those two candidates are going to do that. and my concern in the current information environment is that it's harder and harder for voters to just make these basic

distinctions. >> do basic research. >> that's harder and harder particularly at the local level to get. >> can i just say, north carolina was a state that was embroiled. remember the first time we heard about bishop barber, it was moral mondays. would they extend obamacare in north carolina. health care was a huge issue. it helped elect the current governor. she wanted developmental aid for kids. i have not heard or read anything about that coming up in this campaign. the things they're fighting over are a lot more coutre. it's whether or not the holocaust is real. >> literal like the governor's

primary on the republican side is astonishing. >> yeah. it's whether or not -- i can't even remember all of the things but the republican nominee doesn't have a policy. he called the parkland students children who shouldn't weigh in on gun reform and they're childish and foolish. on the republican side there actually isn't a policy debate happening that would help this woman make that decision. >> i would agree and point out this is not exactly driven by the underlying dynamics of the conservative voting block in that state. it's far outdoing. trump narrowly won by about 75,000 votes out of over 3.5 million cast. you look at that. if you were in any reality-based political mode, this was a real nail biter. we have to be careful. >> it's not alabama. >> right.

>> you can't just nominate whoever you want. >> instead we see this in several states where they go the other direction. we've seen bubbles burst. if anyone is looking for potential silver linings, the desantis idea of let's just troll, let's do the most ridiculous right wing online theater. how does that play when you meet a republican electorate. just the general electorate, the republican electorate, there was a feedback loop, high on your own supply. we've seen that in north carolina. the question tonight in the general election will be what happens when you meet real voters? >> i think the real voters are the most -- primary voters are so informed. >> yes. >> the woman talking about trump, i think that was a haley voter. i saw some of that interview during my hours. the specificity she understands he was found guilty out of sexual assault, is out of the ruling. they are the -- primary voters are super, super, super duper

informed. >> yes. >> it's an interesting look into the fractures of the ecosystem. there are very informed voters out there. >> also to both of those points, the one that you raised, chris, and the one that you raised, nicole, the challenge for the biden campaign and democrats more broadly, not to be the top google result to make sure very informed voters are getting fed the most positive information, it's to in very broad strokes say those people are talking about crazy radicalism and we're talking about popular practical policy things to make government work for you. if those can be the two brands of the two parties, you don't need to sell it at the micro level. people will understand it in their gut. >> that worked in 2022 in a lot of races. >> steve kornacki is loading up the big board with results. we have poll closings, important ones, particularly for nikki haley coming up. this hour we have a lot to get to. the stay with us.

a lot of people aren't voting because they are dismayed at their choices. i think if the majority of people voted, like women, for example, who trump has insulted multiple times, a broad swath of women, you know, refugees, people from other countries, anyone of -- hispanic origin, i mean, if all of those people voted, i don't think it would be as weird as it is now. i think it would be better. so i think people should go and vote. but it had to be chic. so we wayfair'd it. wayfair for the win. hey neighbor looking fancy. fancy? nah. we wayfair'd it and saved a ton. wayfair does it again. it's beautiful i didn't know you wayfair'd. oh girl we wayfair, tile, faucet... the works.

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donald j. trump is a polarizing figure, as is the counter. if there was an alternative, i was leading towards desantis. as he flitted away, left with

two options, nikki haley, who i believe is a normalist and donald trump, that's a no brainer for me. >> another massachusetts voter speaking with nbc news earlier today. massachusetts polls will be closing at 8 p.m. eastern. the next polls that are closing are in vermont and virginia. let's go to virginia now to the fairfax county center. ryan nobles has been there this evening watching proceedings and talking to voters. ryan, what have you been seeing? >> reporter: not much, honestly, rachel. it's kind of dead here 15 minutes before the polls close. that's probably not a good sign for nikki haley. nikki haley, her game plan in virginia, which is probably her best shot at cutting into donald trump's lead, would be to run up some big margins here in fairfax county. fairfax county is the biggest county in virginia. the it is a solidly blue county, but what we've seen is a trend line of democrats crossing over

and voting in a republican primary. you could make the assumption they are not voting for donald trump. anecdotally, we have talked to voters all day who have said just that, they feel the democratic primary is sewn up. they want to cast a vote for nikki haley. now early on the trend line showed us that there were more republican primary voters than there were democratic primary voters in fairfax county, which is unusual, and that would be a good sign for haley, but the trend line is just not steep enough for her to really have the kind of impact statewide that she would need. in other words, she'd have to really run up the score in a place like fairfax county, arlington county, alexandria and the northern virginia counties that are traditionally democrat but have the opportunity for voters to cross over and vote in the republican primary. that being said, there is still the possibility this state will be the place where nikki haley

can make the sort of biggest impact as she tries to build this case that there are still a lot of republican primary voters, republican voters in general that are just dissatisfied with donald trump, a margin that is big enough that will hurt him in the general election. we'll have to see what that -- those numbers end up being as to whether or not she can continue to make that case and stay in this race. but overall, rachel, the exit polls are showing us that republican voters in general, at least those voting in the republican primary today, are very dissatisfied with the state of the country in general. they don't have good feelings about the economy. they don't have very good feelings about joe biden himself and they do want to see a change. voters i've talked to have said that's not necessarily donald trump but it's also not joe biden. they'd like someone else that really isn't a someone else available, at least in this 2024 election. so virginia's going to tell us a lot and we should get a pretty good sense of what these numbers look like shortly after the polls close right at the top of the hour at 7:00 eastern, but it

may not be the momentum that nikki haley is looking for and there are certainly going to be questions about how much longer she can stay in the race given the fact there doesn't appear to be a place on the map she can win. >> ryan nobles in fairfax, virginia, for us. ryan, thank you very much. ryan raises an important point there about how nikki hailey's candidacy is not seen as one that can defeat donald trump for the nomination but it has been seen as a sort of proxy for this important question of whether or not a portion of the otherwise republican electorate sees donald trump as unacceptable and won't vote for him in november. i want to ask you about this because i know this is one of the exits that we have. we don't have exits in every state tonight but we've got them in three states, including virginia. and we don't -- we did ask that question about will you vote for the republican nominee in november no matter who it is regardless of who you're voting for today. what kind of results did we get

there? >> yeah, let me call this one up here. yes. actually, you can see it is three states where we have the exit poll here. california, north carolina, virginia. disclaimer always at this hour before polls can be closed. we are still adding to the exit poll. the numbers are subject to change. take these with a big grain of salt. the question we're asking, it's not a candidate specific question. it asks republican primary voters will you, regardless of who it is, vote for the republican nominee? you're seeing 59% say that in california, 63 in north carolina, 59 in virginia. a couple of things here i think are important though to keep in mind when you see the numbers. number one, this is not a candidate specific question. so we're not asking specifically or if haley is the nominee specifically. so within these questions you might have sort of two different mind sets answering this question from two different angles. haley voters thinking about trump as the perspective nominee, trump voters thinking

the question applied to haley and answering it in those terms. in terms of making this specific to either candidate, i would take that with a big grain of salt here. again, we have been seeing things like this across these republican primaries. the other thing to keep in mind, too, in these republican primaries is we have been getting at this question. this is really true in virginia, in north carolina tonight, not so much california because california is a closed primary. there's no independents, no democrats by registration who are allowed to vote in california. virginia, not the case. it's an open primary and north carolina, independents can participate. the question we have been asking in the early contests, new hampshire, south carolina in particular where haley had strong areas is how much of that vote is independents or folks who think of themselves as democrats coming into these primaries not because they plan to vote republican in the fall. they plan to vote for biden but they want to vote against and register their extreme frustration with trump. interesting question in the exit polls when you see these numbers

is the approval rating of joe biden among republican primary voters. so i'll show you what i mean here. take a look at virginia. in our exit poll, more than one in five, 21% of republican primary voters in virginia, again, we'll see if this number changes throughout the night, but that's more than one in five saying they approve of joe biden's job performance. why is that significant? because every poll out there including our own nbc poll finds when you isolate this to just pure republicans, you find almost no republicans saying they approve of joe biden's job performance. in our most recent nbc poll, joe biden's approval rating among republicans was 3%. so it's seven times that number here in virginia. an open primary state tonight. so not everything is -- you cannot easily and emphatically link everything, but the idea here of that open primary

attracting a substantial number of non-republicans, folks who voted biden in '20, folks who would never vote for donald trump in a general election. even folks who might vote for nikki haley if it came to them, are crossing over to donald trump. when you see trump getting a 21% approval rating with republican primary voters, i think your suspicions ought to go up on that being a substantial number potentially. >> and the other side of that coin, steve, in california, again, as you said, a closed primary, so this is republicans only in california. we think of california as a very democratic state, but that doesn't tell you anything about the character of the republicans there. in a closed primary in california, we have got 41% saying they don't want to vote for the republican nominee. and that's not crossover, that's not independents and democrats crossing over. >> keep in mind, too, that's the possibility of trump voters answering this as, you know, is

this question asking me if nikki haley is the nominee. on this point, this is also significant. virginia, open primary state. 21% job approval rating for biden among republicans. california, biggest of the big blue states, you would think this number would be, if it's 21 in virginia, what's it in california? eight in california because of the closed primary. no independents, no democrats here. you might have some folks who thought they were independents and thought they were democrats and they find out they're republicans and have to vote in this primary. we do see that happen in both parties sometimes. this number also illustrates the difference between closed and open primaries. >> our super tuesday coverage continues. we're moments away from the polls closing in the aforementioned virginia and also in vermont where nikki haley may have her best chance of picking up a state. a half hour later, polls closing in north carolina. it's all happening. stay with us. ning stay with us but as you get older, it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall.

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welcome back to our super tuesday coverage. polls are just about to close in virginia and in vermont. our colleague lawrence o'donnell has joined us. i wanted to show you a thing from the exit poll that we were talking about yesterday. these are the results in the exit poll in virginia. virginia voters turning out for the republican primary asked will you vote for the republican nominee in november. more than a third say no, i won't. just under 60% say they will. does that strike you as significant in terms of general election prospects? >> it is significant and it's something that every party always worries about. if there's a primary that's contentious at all, and this one is contentious enough. and so there's a little bit of a mystery in there because as steve pointed out, that question cuts across both potential republican nominees. you have to bet at this point that republican primary voters

who are way more informed than your average republican voter know that there's only one possibility for the nominee. like, there is not a theoretical possibility for nikki haley to be the nominee when you're asking that question today. you know, leaving aal poing place today. so the likelihood is that that is a pretty negative indicator for donald trump in november. and what always has to be remembered is if you just slice off 10,000 votes in this state, 10,000 votes in that state, you're in trouble. >> again, extrapolating from primary vote to the general election, all sorts of speed bumps on the way but impossible not to extrapolate. it's what the whole country is doing. polls are closing in less than ten seconds in the great state of vermont and in virginia. we'll give you characterizations from the decision desk here as soon as we have them. at 7:00 p.m. eastern, 7:00 p.m. east coast time, the nbc projection at this point in the great state of vermont.

excuse me, in the great state of virginia, in the republican primary in virginia, is that it is too early to call, but trump leads. again, the projection, too early to call but trump leads in virginia. in the republican primary in vermont, the decision desk projects that the vermont republican primary at this hour is too early to call. agai -- in terms of delegates won, 276. nikki haley stands at 43. nobody mathematically can get to the threshold needed to clinch the nomination tonight. on to the democratic side. in the democratic contest in virginia, nbc news can project that democrat joe biden will win in virginia.

and in vermont, nbc news can project that in vermont, the democratic contest is too early to call. this is the overall delegates, that is in the democratic race. right now, there are 326 democratic delegates pledged to joe biden. that race, the delegate race on the democratic side will be a place where we all relax and coast. again, the characterization on the republican side in virginia, too early, but trump leading. in vermont, too early with no characterization of the race other than that. nikki haley obviously would love to get a win tonight. getting a win in washington, d.c. is the world's smallest win but it was a win and it gave her a bunch of delegates. she would love to have another win tonight. the case she's been making is

listen, i'm an accountant, i know i'm not winning these places but the share of the vote i'm getting is important. it's not a miniscule number. regardless of how many delegates it translates to, regardless of the chance to overtake trump, i'm attracting a large enough proportion of the vote that we should recognize that as a threat to donald trump in the general. do you think that case is factual? do you think she has a chance to add to it tonight? >> i think if you're nikki haley and you are really staring at the bottom of your empty glass, you wonder what would happen if you made the fitness argument against donald trump a year ago. she's only running the way she's running today in very, very, very recent history, and when you listen to her voters. she's got to wonder if she could have convinced more of them that she's a, quote -- her voters today, they call them a lunatic. they call them sick, crazy.

if they knew he was found guilty of sexual assault, she connected with her voters on the facts of trump in a way that no republican really has in the time of trump. if you're nikki haley and being honest, you wonder what would have happened if you had run this campaign a year ago. >> how do you compare the chris christie campaign? which did what you're suggesting, to the nikki haley campaign? nikki haley is the last one standing. is that because, and i don't know, is that because she did not offend republican voters early by telling them in effect you are wrong in who you voted for last time? you know what i mean? she stretched it out to the point where she can say it now because she's the last one standing. does the christie example show us that that as an early strategy would lose or was haley somehow just a better candidate who would have done it better than christie? >> that's one of the messages in

my republican ties. i think i shared that with you on an earlier primary night. haley killed christie in the back room, by getting the donor money, by having people like dana powell walking the halls of investment banks and telling people she's the kinder, softer, gentler republican, and christie was too known. i think the reason it's haley and not christie, and you're right, an avatar for anti-trump republicanism, he was first, louder, and he's more trumpy, but she killed him in the backrooms of republican money politics. >> two points of her introduction. she was first introduced as a trump appointee. she did have to evolve that story over time. no one is sitting there saying she's sweeping tonight, but she did better than any other candidate, including those with money and buzz like desantis. she said let's tell this story of how you slowly over time lost faith with the person you served

which is how people met you. >> people who served with him are the ones who wanted to use the 25th amendment. the most nonsensical argument you could ever make. all of the reporting on the 25th amendment was sourced from the cabinet. >> and she was there. >> an asinine argument, but it was what she argued. >> and gentle. what did she say? he was the right president for the time. but now, i think he's a lunatic and crazy. saying there's nothing wrong with you, you were right to pick him before. i was right to serve him before. but now, looking ahead to a 2024 election, of course you wouldn't pick that old man. >> and by the way, she has something that chris christie doesn't have, which she also could be a softer version of the rural argument. christie could have never taken advantage of the one thing she had going for her, that she's a lady. it's still an anti-abortion argument, but that is their biggest peril, period, going

into november. it's still the biggest threat to donald trump, to republicans down ballot, so i think because she's a woman, she would be able to stand on the stage with all those men, including the blustery chris christie and be the softer, gentler, including being a woman, being more trustworthy to female primary voters. she had that advantage going in and she's a better politician than chris christie. she presents herself really well. she came across, and the second piece that we really don't talk about anymore, and it's so weird because i'm used to talking about it about republicans, is on foreign policy. she stood ten toes down on ukraine. she's the one who mocked and ridiculed desantis on the issue of international spending and being a player in the world. i think she made that case better than chris christie. >> and you know, used to be an establishment kind of republican. >> nicolle, could you take us back to the republican money

rooms for a second. one more question. i have never been there. was nikki haley saying in the campaign what they wanted her to say? do they agree with that analysis that she should have sloped it up the way ari describes her accurately as having done, or did they actually want her to sound like chris christie? >> look, they're going to see what they wanted her to sound like better than i can. on the political side, she just manipulated the dynamic. she manipulated the money better than he did. she made the argument she wad going to be able to bring republican voters along. my understanding on the christie side, it was underhanded and backhanded in some ways. look, we're talking about her. whatever it was, it worked. >> speaking of talking about her, what better to add to this conversation than actual new reporting from the haley campaign, joining us now from

outside haley headquarters in south carolina is nbc news correspondent ali vitali who ha new reporting as to the mind set of the haley campaign and what they're thinking about tonight. ali. >> reporter: i was listening to your conversation. yes to joy on the foreign policy and reproductive rights angle. yes to nicolle on the way that she presented in these rooms full of donors and the way that i think she was able to outmaneuver chris christie. yes to ari and lawrence in their analysis of the role she's played in the race. the reason she didn't go at him sooner and she's said this is because if she went at him from the start, she would have been chris christie. she felt she had to knock out the rest of the field before going toe to toe with her former boss. in terms of the new reporting from just outside her campaign headquarters, i'm told by a campaign source the mood inside, and this might surprise you, is jubilant. and throughout the day, i have heard the phrase happy warrior from all of these folks that are

either getting out the vote for nikki haley in the waning hours of super tuesday, or who hunkered down after traveling to seven or eight states in just as many days the last week and a half. they say they're playing music, a lot of this music has a certain female tint to it, things like starting from the bottom, now they are here. sort of things that reference where she started in this race. and the fact that she is now in a place where she is waiting to see how she does against donald trump. we know that she is in the charleston area and waiting to see if she does stop by her campaign headquarters or if instead she's watching these results from her home which is also in this area. but i think the thing that's important is she has long said she will stay in this race for as long as she's competitive. very vague word there, but it's also hard to define if you have or haven't been competitive as these results roll in if you're

not doing anything that's going to be televised, if you're not giving remarks to tell your view of how the results shook out. right now, we don't expect haley to be giving any remarks. we don't expect to see her, and in fact, we don't have the next time we're going to see her on paper. there are no more public appearances for nikki haley or the haley campaign. she did a little press this morning, but we're not expecting to see her in any official campaign capacity. that raises the questions that loom over this entire night. what happens to nikki haley after super tuesday? is there a world in which she stays in through next week in georgia? yeah, i could see that. or is there one where she said we gave voters enough alternative, and i'm going to bow out of this race. i could see that happening too, and that begs the next question, what happens with the trump endorsement and we have things to talk about for the rest of the night. we'll see if we can make inroads. really, the idea that the mood is jubilant here, it gives the

sense of dancing on the deck of the titantic almost. >> let me ask you to figure out what that tune is, then. you're talking about sort of squaring the circle that doesn't make that much sense. if the campaign is not just spinning you, if they are jubilant, if they are playing drake, if they are thinking that this is meeting what she said she was going to do, which is staying competitive, then what is there explanation for why she's not speaking tonight, why she's giving up what would be guaranteed unfettered national air time on one of the biggest political nights of the year. why is she at home, no events, no planned speech tonight or even in upcoming days? >> well, she's in the charleston area. i think all of us have done this long enough to know you can go from not making any remarks to making remarks really quickly if news suddenly starts going your way. i do think that's not something that could be out of the question. although we don't know that yet

at this point. obviously, i think that not doing remarks both takes them off the table and leaves open the possibility that they could come back and be revived. i do think that the idea that they are jubilant and happy warriors is not new to tonight, though. i have seen over the course of the last few weeks on this campaign as the rest of the republican apparatus has sort of been shooing the nikki haley campaign out the door, saying let's go, this is donald trump's nomination, time to sew this primary up, they have been very aware of that fact and they have forged ahead and played the game they came here to play. they know the odds. they know the stakes. their campaign manager has said that to me time and again. but i think that's why they're taking the posture of, yes, they're going down with a fight, but they're also going down by trying to hold their heads high and knowing they offered a different vision for this republican party. i nikki haley might not want to contend with this idea is that in this republican party,

because she's the only person who is against trump, she says she's not an anti-trump candidate, but innately, you look at voters on the ground, the ones we have been showing on air today, they're voting for her, yes, because they're voting for her, but also because she's not trump. >> ali vitali, tonight, intrepidly trying to figure out whether there might be surprise remarks. what was the thinking in terms of timing, what they're thinking in terms of maybe down the road a potential endorsement which seems antithetical to her entire campaign. you have a lot to pry out of those folks. tell them we said hi, and let us know what you find out. thank you. >> you got it. >> let's go over to our friend steve. steve, i can see from your map that we're getting in some numbers. we have polls closed now 14 minutes ago in both vermont and in virginia. what are we seeing? >> nothing in vermont yet. you were asking earlier about

whether the early votes in virginia would be more from trump areas or from haley areas. you're seeing kind of a scattering here. these are very trump friendly counties we're getting some votes in from. you go to southwestern virginia, not much here, this is going to be an extremely pro-trump county tonight. what is significant in what has come in so far, and actually, we got some from cholesterfield, it's one of the very big suburban counties right outside of richmond. this is the kind of place where if haley is going to have any kind of night in virginia, this is one of the counties. we only have 106 votes in, but the suburban county where we have a fair number of votes so far, northern virginia, this is one layer removed from the immediate washington, d.c. metro area, but loudoun county, we talked about this, if you remember in 2021, that governor's race, one of the big swing counties in the governor's race. 5% of the vote is now in in loudoun county. very even race. trump does have in this count

49/47, a two-point advantage over haley. significant as this vote comes in because frankly, if haley is going to have a shot here state-wide in virginia, she has to do a heck of a lot better than this. it can't be even. she has to be winning it and racking up a margin in loudoun county. one metric we're going to be using, we'll go back to the 2016 results in the state. one way we have been looking at the primary results for benchmarks has been to go back to 2016 and look in different states at what the combined share of donald trump and ted cruz was, because demographically, the voters in '16 who were going to trump and cruz, very similar to the voters we have been seeing most decisively on trump's side in the primary season so far. you can see in loudoun county, in 2016, this added up to about 43% of the vote. was trump plus cruz. so if you're trump this time, and you narrowly won virginia in

'16, if you're getting north of 43%, that's an improvement from the trump/cruz number in 2016. conversely, loudoun county is one of those places in virginia where the vote total of marco rubio plus john kasich, remember when rubio and casech were running, demographically, who was voting for them? that's haley's demographic wheelhouse in the primaries so far. this was a county in virginia where the rubio/kasich vote was more than 50%. state-wide, it was only about 42%. in loudoun county, northern virginia county, a majority. so haley needs to be hitting that and then expanding on that to be winning in virginia tonight. with 5%, that's a lot still to come in loudoun county, but that is somewhat a substantial early report out of loudoun county. that's what we're going to be looking at as the vote comes in, and other places you can see in northern virginia, prince william county is giving us

something. about 3% in prince william county. again, you see a 59/38 trump advantage here. again, one of those counties the trump plus cruz vote, you see it from 2016. this was 50.2%. it was basically just as close to a narrow majority, as narrow as it can come. trump and cruz in '16. again, if trump were to be running at 60% or more tonight, that's 10% of the trump/cruz number. this is a small number of the vote in, but that's the benchmark we'll be looking at as the votes come in. it looks like we have some -- okay, we were talking about this earlier. look how they almost fit together like pieces of a puzzle. this is washington, d.c. where we saw nikki haley pick up the win over the weekend. we talked about how those immediate areas right over the potomac river are demographically similar to d.c. when it comes to the republican primary. this county right here, arlington county, this is more than 80% white college edge

kapted here in arlington county. right on the other side of the potomac. you see 5% in arlington county. notice it's only a little more than 1,000 votes. this is the kind of place where haley doesn't just have to win. what she needs here, there's so many democratic voters here. so many anti-trump democratic friendly votes in arlington county. it's huge when it comes to population. and so what haley needs here is to attract non-republicans to come in and not just give her a big margin over trump in terms of the vote share. she needs votes here. she needs big numbers of votes. we'll look at what this vote share is. this is one of rubio's best places on the map in 2016. that's what you want to look for. if you zoom out and look state-wide in virginia, what it adds up to is this patchwork of returns we're getting so far is a pretty substantial trump lead. we got a big batch in here. >> have to interrupt you for the

only thing i ever interrupt you for. we have a new projection. it is in the race that you have been talking about. it is in the virginia republican primary. nbc news can now project that in the virginia republican primary, donald trump is the projected winner. so again, steve, that is just what you were talking about in terms of what's going on state-wide versus the places where nikki haley needs to run the strongest. from the very early returns it looks like she may be running strong in the places she needs to run the strongest, but nbc is projecting it won't be enough to pull the state. >> we got that call from, we were looking at loudoun county a minute ago. we told you 5% of the vote was in. the call comes because it just jumped to 33% right before you came in with the call. you can see that lead trump had is stabilizing here. a majority right now for him in loudoun county. as you have a big batch of the vote in, haley did not take a big leap ahead in loudoun county. that goes a long way toward giving you the call for trump

state-wide. quickly, we do have votes coming in in vermont right now. we mentioned again, this was going to be one of haley's probably one of haley's strongest spots of the night. the question would be, how strong? again, the thing in vermont looking at these results is we're getting them by towns. town by town in vermont. they're not going to add up to a ton. basically, if you're nicyk haley, there is a burlington metro area. burlington, south burlington, that part of vermont, also a population center around rutland, mt. pelier, too. these should be haley friendly. >> we'll keep an eye on the vermont returns as they come in. and if we get anything else interesting in terms of understanding more about the trump win in virginia. >> the next state where polls are closing is north carolina. the governor of north carolina is going to join us this hour. our coverage continues at the

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my good friend joy reid earlier this evening mentioned something about the sort of tenor, the things you have been hearing in the governor's race that's happening tonight in north carolina. north carolina both parties are holding primaries, and their governor's race. i want to play you, joy, a little bit of sound of an ad. this is run in the republican primary. it was run by a candidate named bill graham, who is supported by u.s. senator thom tillis. he's running well behind the leading republican. this is one of his most poignant ads in this primary. watch. >> mark robinson, he suggested the holocaust wasn't real. downplayed the nazis. promoted hitler propaganda. that's just plain wrong. i'm bill graham. the holocaust was real.

hitler was evil. and we must stand with israel and defeat radical islamic terrorism. >> if you needed a snapshot of what's going on in american politics now, primary ads have to contain the phrase the holocaust was real and hitler was evil. north carolina tonight is holding primaries on the presidential race, also on the governor's race. on the democratic side in that governor's primary, the state's incumbent attorney general, josh stein, who is not pictured here, can you drop those images? thank you. thanks. josh stein is the likely nominee. josh stein has won state-wide in north carolina two elections in a row. both times he won as the democrat running in elections where donald trump was also on the ballot and winning the state. josh stein, the democratic attorney general of north carolina, thought to have a very good shot at the governorship in north carolina as a democratic likely nominee. we'll find out about his prospects in the primary in just a moment. on the republican side, in north

carolina, the current lieutenant governor was the subject of the ad you saw. this is him, his name is mark robinson. he's leading the republican race for the nominee for governor in north carolina this year. he has railed against survivors of school gun massacres, as joy mentioned earlier, he's called them, quote, media prosti-tots and spoiled little bastards who need to shut up. he's called public school teachers wicked people. he said about the superhero movie black panther, it was, quote, created by an agnostic jew. he has also denied the holocaust, saying, quote, hitler disarming millions of jews and marching them off to concentration camps is a bunch of hogwash. that guy, the holocaust was a bunch of hogwash guy, is the leading candidate for the republican party's nomination for governor in north carolina. he has been endorsed by donald trump. he's broadly expected to win the

party's nomination tonight. >> oh, there's more. he referred to former first lady michelle obama as a man who speaks ghetto and wookie. he has called vice president kamala harris a joke and a leftist idiot. hillary clinton, he distributed and posted a meme with an image of hillary clinton being decapitated, called her a witch. >> he likes women. >> he said we're called to be led by men. so i guess he's going to get the women's vote and the african american vote for the north carolina republican party. >> yeah. i mean, north carolina is a state where donald trump has won twice. north carolina has also been electing governors, democratic governors like roy cooper who we're going to speak with in a moment. the democrats like their attorney general, josh stein, and think he has a great track record of getting elected in the state and he has a good shot, but the republicans seem poised

to nominate this guy. >> michelle obama is one of the most admired americans among all americans. she's viewed in most opinion polling that goes outside of politics as one of the most admired people in the country. >> and donald trump called that guy who said that about the person that a lot of african americans call their forever first lady, he called him martin luther king jr. on steroids. that's what donald trump called that guy. >> the holocaust denier. >> a holocaust denier who would be running against what would be the first jewish governor of north carolina. >> we are getting a poll closing alert for north carolina. again, where the primary contest tonight includes presidential contests on both sides. but also, a very important what will be the nation's marquee governor race. a governor's race potentially so explosive that it might have presidential consequences ipterms of what happens elsewhere on the ballot in the state of north carolina. right now, with polls closed in north carolina, we are going to

our decision desk. nbc news can project at this hour that in the presidential republican primary in north carolina, donald trump is the winner. nbc news can project that in the presidential primary on the democratic side in north carolina, joe biden is the winner. again, projected winners. trump and biden in the presidential nominating contest in north carolina. but now let's look at those gubernatorial nominating primaries in north carolina. this is, again, party nominees for the gubernatorial race. indeed, the projected winner of the republican gubernatorial primary in north carolina is mark robinson, the gentleman who we have just been describing. republicans in north carolina choosing a candidate who has baggage that includes holocaust denial as their nominee for governor. on the democratic side, in the gubernatorial primary, that is a race that is considered to be too early to call with no characterization otherwise in the democratic primary, the

gubernatorial primary in north carolina. so we shall see. we shall see how that plays out. however, unexpectedly, here is another call from the decision desk. this is in the democratic contest. the presidential nominating contest in the great state of vermont. nbc news now projected the winner of the democratic contest in vermont will be joe biden. joy reid, i'm going to go to you. there is more to say about mark robinson who we now know will be the republican nominee for governor in north carolina. but we also have roy cooper standing by. >> is it too late to get herschel walker back in there? he might have actually have a better chance. governor cooper, let me introduce you. where just want today start there. because there is a history of republicans nominating trump endorsed candidates. you could go through them all, herschel walker, blake masters in arizona, adam lax lt.

they all lost on the same formula of being too extreme for even republican leaning independents, et cetera. is the campaign already written? have you already started cutting the commercials for this soon to be nominee and apparent holocaust denier? >> mark robinson is the most extreme candidate we have seen in north carolina history, and remember, jesse helms came from north carolina. i served as chair of the democratic governor's association in 2022, and mark robinson is the kind of candidate that maga has brought forward. i heard just before that the long list of things, there's a lot more calling lgbtq people filth, saying that he would shoot government officials with his assault weapon if they got too big for their britches. saying men should lead, not

women. this is issue after issue where he shows the most extreme position. and we're about to nominate josh stein, who is our current attorney general. who has stood up to big pharma, has the integrity and the grit to lead a closely divided state. we have to work on a bipartisan way in north carolina to get things done, like expanding medicaid, like north carolina just did. and josh stein is the guy we're going to push hard. you look at trump and robinson. it's double trouble at the top of the ticket in north carolina. i think that's going to bring a lot of people out to vote. reproductive freedom for women is going to be a strong issue in north carolina this time. health care with medicaid just expanding and hundreds of thousands of people getting health care. donald trump has just said he wants to rip it away. he wants to gut the affordable care act. we have to be really careful about that because this is one of the few promises that he

actually tried to keep when he was president. the affordable care act was in significant danger then. and he will do it again. >> and we know that one of the races that's also happening is the race to potentially replace the former democrat who switched, you know, you have got a lot of intrigue around abortion, obviously, and there is now a super majority in your state that is poised to essentially rob women of their reproductive rights. do you think that is going to be the primary issue in november or at least a primary issue? >> reproductive freedom will be on the ballot in north carolina in november. there is a one-vote supermajority in the legislature. they have already passed a 12-week abortion ban. republican leaders have said they are coming back for more. people are going to get energized in north carolina. you have got donald trump who goes around bragging that he overturned roe v. wade with his three appointments to the supreme court. and this is one of the few times

he's told the truth. that's the truth. and then we have mark robinson, who is against abortion under any circumstances, with no exceptions. we know that we're going to work to get a democratic governor elected. we believe we can win this state for joe biden. he's targeted north carolina. this was his closest loss last time. with the third fastest growing state, our blue cities are getting bluer. we believe we can win this race for biden. and with this undercurrent, we're going to be working very hard to break the supermajority in the legislature so that a future governor stein's vetoes can be upheld and we can stay out of these culture wars and protect women's reproductive freedom and protect our public schools and continue to fight climate change and do the things that we know the people of north carolina want to do. mark robinson does not reflect north carolina values. and we're going to show that in

november. >> really quickly, because i am a bit obsessed with north carolina. in '04, this was one of the three states that democrats were sort of behind the scenes thinking could be a flip state. it is a state that barack obama did win by 14,000 votes in 2008. he only lost it by about 90,000 votes in 2012. i went through a deep dive today on these races. your state loves your governors' races and the turnout in your two re-elects was higher than the turnout for either of those two presidential elections that i just discussed. 2.8 million people voted for you in your re-elect. that's higher than voted in the presidential races. but there have been also some narrow losses. this is a narrow state. cheri beasley, who is the former leader of your supreme court, the former chief justice of your supreme court, she lost narrowly, 47.3% to ted bud, a very extremist anti-abortion candidate who got 50.5%. this is a very narrow state.

how do you then sort of -- what is the strategy to make sure it doesn't go that way again? because ted bud is also an anti-abortion candidate. you have seen that kind of candidate be able to slip through. what's the strategy against mark robinson? is it just literally running ads letting him talk and say his extremist things? it is a state that could flip either way. >> i'm very proud that i appointed cheri beasley as the first black woman chief justice of our state supreme court. and she only lost that race by about 400-some votes in 2020, one of the saddest losses i have seen. but the national party did not support her in 2022 when she ran. there was a difference of many millions of dollars in what ted bud and the groups that supported him spent in this race and what she spent. that's why it's so critical that the biden campaign target north carolina.

we can win this state for him and we can win with our slate of state-wide democratic candidates as well. and we have got to get them energized. this is going to be a choice here. and i think people are slowly wrapping their minds around the fact that this is going to be a trump/biden rematch. i think tonight's primaries, people will begin to come to that realization. when they do, they're going to have a choice of a joe biden who wakes up every morning thinking about the american people and a donald trump who wakes up every morning thinking about himself. this will be a stark choice, democracy will be on the ballot, women's reproductive freedom will be on the ballot. and i believe the american people will respond positively to joe biden's accomplishments which have been extraordinary. when you look at this congress and how they have a hard time doing anything, joe biden did more his first two years than most presidents could hope to do

in two terms. i was in a rural county announcing water infrastructure investments, people coming up to me with tears running down their cheeks because they didn't have to boil water anymore. talking to people who are actually getting their homes connected to high-speed internet who didn't have a chance to do that before. these are investments that the biden administration has brought about. generational investments. we need to work hard to tell this story during the next few months. and the contrast is going to be extraordinary. >> governor cooper, it's rachel here. i'm really grateful to have you here with us tonight. especially with this timing, so much drama around what's happening in your state. i just wanted to ask, in keeping with what you were describing. if we gave you a magic waupd and you could program the biden/harris campaign between now and november to try to win north carolina, the way that you're describing, with mark robinson as this very extremist,

very outre nominee, with the likely nominee josh stein, who has such a good track record in north carolina, with the kinds of availables that you think biden and harris can bring to the people of north carolina to put it back in the blue column, how would you program their campaign? what issues would you structure their ads around and their campaign appearances around to give them the best shot to win north carolina? >> well, if we can get people to the polls, we win. this is going to be a strong turnout election. and we have to show the stark differences between these candidates. the people in north carolina, the majority of them support a woman's right to choose. yet donald trump, mark robinson, and the republicans want to take that away. the people of north carolina strongly support medicaid expansion and getting people health care. donald trump, mark robinson who

opposed medicaid expansion, republicans, they want to take that away. these are the issues that matter to everyday people at the kitchen table. and we have to make people realize that they do have a stake in this. i understand how people can be turned off by politics right now. the vitriol out there is so rampant. but at the same time, we need to let them know that there has never been a wider choice here, a more different choice than they have right now. these are polar opposite candidates. republicans have been taken over by maga. there are a lot of republicans out there, a lot of unaffiliated who are voting for nikki haley today, who don't want to elect donald trump. joe biden's got to go and get those people. as many of them as he can, to show them that, yeah, he can bring us forward. you know, he can work to make

sure that we have a better future for the american people. that's what we need to do. >> north carolina's democratic governor roy cooper, thank you so much for your time tonight. fascinating results out of your state. we're grateful to have you with us. thank you. >> thanks, guys. it's about 15, 20 minutes to 8:00 on the east coast right now. at 8:00, we're going to have a whole bunch of poll closings. we'll have alabama and maine and massachusetts and oklahoma and tennessee. we will have polls start to close in parts of texas. there's a lot still to come. polls have already closed in virginia, in vermont, in north carolina. results from those states still pouring in. lots to get to. stay with us tonight here on msnbc. >> what made you switch from trump to nikki haley? >> the man is a lunatic. i think he's terrible for the country. >> what are you thinking about when you say that? >> just that he lies. he cheats.

he has bankrupted millions of businesses and people. and i don't see anything good about him. >> let me ask, if donald trump is the nominee in november, do you support joe biden over donald trump? >> no. because there are places you'd rather be. farxiga can cause serious side effects, including ketoacidosis that may be fatal, dehydration, urinary tract, or genital yeast infections, and low blood sugar. a rare, life-threatening bacterial infection in the skin of the perineum could occur. stop taking farxiga and call your doctor right away if you have symptoms of this infection, an allergic reaction, or ketoacidosis. ♪ far-xi-ga ♪

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why did you support joe biden? >> well, my thing is, i'm looking for a man that's honest. mostly. and will stand up for the people. you know, he's already brought in a lot of jobs and stuff like that. you know, and i think since he's been in office, unemployment has been down and jobs are up. >> voters speaking with nbc news today in north carolina. we have had polls close already in vermont and in virginia and in north carolina. we are heading toward a whole bunch of poll closings. alabama, maine, massachusetts, oklahoma, tennessee, some parts of texas. before we get to those poll closings, steve, do you want to

give an update in terms of what we have got and what we're looking at? >> a couple things. one is this delegate prickture. we talked about the rules favoring if you can win, you can get the lion's share. just by winning virginia and north carolina, he has added 71 delegates to his total. he's up to 347. 1215 is the magic number. he won't hit that tonight. if he keeps performing like in the first two states, if that is near 1,000 by the end of the night, it wouldn't be surprising. one of the realities haley may be facing at the end of the night. look at virginia and the results, and there are two things to flag. number one, the big picture overall is the scale of this trump win. i think what's notable about this just relative to some of the other primaries we have had in south carolina, in new hampshire in particular, where haley was able to break 40% of the vote. on paper, virginia is a lot more demographically favorable to her, yet you see her running under that number she got in new

hampshire and in south carolina. and a great example is chesterfield county, the demographics, big suburban county, matched that of a congressional district haley won in south carolina. she got delegates out of one district in south carolina. it looks an awful lot like chesterfield county, but trump is winning that 2-1. it's possible here the long campaign in new hampshire, her home state status in south carolina creating some unique conditions that aren't replicating in michigan, in virginia, in north carolina. the other thing to note in virginia, we said they give out delegates by congressional district. zoom out in the immediate d.c. area. in this area here, fairfax county, arlington county, there is virginia's eighth district and virginia's 11th district.

haley in maroon right there. if you are looking at the returns here, they are very favorable early for nikki haley. the idea that two congressional districts might be going for her, that we six delegates if she gets them. and then we just check in on vermont. we don't have a ton of vote in vermont. if the small state. you see a scattering coming in here. the bottom line is, when you look at these towns collectively and you look at the benchmarks we set for candidate ormond for haley and for trump for that matter, it's just tracking right now with a very close race in vermont. 17 delegates, that is a drop in the ocean compared to what is at stake tonight. but if haley is looking for any kind of a psychological big tree coming into tonight, vermont is the one source of hope for her. >> we want to bring in former obama campaign manager david cluff. good evening. what you see tonight and the results both in what steve was discussing and what we have

thus far and what it says for what is crystallizing as a general election matchup? >> i think the big thing to look at is, will donald trump continue to get 50% of the vote? these are not general election republican voters. these republican primary voters. i think it's nice to the fact that, listen, in november, donald trump is going to win a huge majority of republican voters. but if joe biden can find a way to get six, eight, 10% in some of the states, that can be would get them over that margin to win electoral college votes. the story continues tonight, which is donald press is want to be a precipice of the delegate numbers tonight. it shows the weakness underneath. >> that weakness is only measurable in certain ways, including the raw numbers we discussed, and then the exit poll questions. which to be clear tonight, we only have from three state where there are these

electorates. steve has discussed that there more be maybe more than hard- core republicans. how do you measure that if you are, as you been, the obama campaign chair, if you were the biden chief here. can you compare that to other years? is there a way of saying whether that is the same, better, or worse through what other years candidates have faced? >> it's a young larger number here. there's some issues there, some of those might be voting for trump and haley, but it's larger than we seen for either party in my mind. joe biden has got some headwinds, starting with voters concerned about his age. he's going to have to figure out how to piece this together. it's not going to come easily. if there actually is a larger number of republican voters and then independents who lean republican -- i think that

could be the case -- it is enormously important. i will say this about the general election. if you are looking at the polls -- let's take them with a massive grain of salt. biden is trailing senate candidates in pennsylvania, wisconsin, nevada, arizona by a large margin. i think if you are a democrat, you are not happy about that, but you take some solace that ultimately, you may see that began to get more even. and i think trump in a lot of these polls is much closer to his ceiling than joe biden's. joe biden has a lot of work to do. one of the ways joe biden is want to be able to climb up, which is what's going to be required to win, it's not going to be just based on democrats and it's not even just want to be done on purely undecided moderate independence. he is going to have to over perform with some of these republicans. that is scary, because that is hard to do, but that's the race we are faced with as a democrat. it's going to take a lot of

different voters out there to piece this together. trumps weakness, which we are seeing on display, could not be more important. >> we began the hour with rachel breaking the news of the projection being the nominee for the republicans there in north carolina, and how extreme and hateful his record is. we went through some of the examples of how racism and anti- semitism often run together. and how the trump republican party has these new people, which is true regardless of what happens to donald trump in the years or perhaps even decades ahead. from your view as a national democratic strategist, do you try to nationalize that? is that something that goes beyond north carolina, or is that not realistic with all the other issues on the table? >> they are national, even though you are basically running governors races in about states. even pre-trump, this goes back to the tea party. for basically 2010 to now.

think of the number of senate races, house races republicans should've won that they coughed up because they nominated candidates who were too extreme. the more mark robinson's are out there, the more i think that is helpful to joe biden a democrat generally, because i think it will provide an incentive for democrats to come out and vote and i think it will provide incentive for moderate voters to say, they just can't sign up with a crazy. >> it's not exactly her first super tuesday, so we appreciate you spending this one with us. thank you. >> joining us now from a polling location in dallas, texas, where polls are going to close in just a couple of minutes is priscilla thompson. priscilla, great to have you with us. what are you seeing in dallas? >> we are minutes until polls close, and we still have all of these folks out here trying to drum up that last and it's a work for some of these candidates. and you've also got a bit of a line out the door here. we are trying to get as close

as we can, but we need to spend 100 feet away. stragglers trying to make their voices heard before those polls close. there's been a line out the door even longer than that for about the past hour here. and of course, the presidential primary is the big race on the ballot here. i've spoken to a number of voters, two women who are supporting donald trump, and i also spoke to a woman who is backing nikki haley. all of them are saying that the number one issue on their minds here is immigration and the order. also mentioning the economy, the wars in israel and ukraine, but the big one for a lot of people here in texas is immigration. and that is important, because in addition to the presidential primary, there's also a big ballot race here with the tent senate and determining who is going to take on senator ted cruz. you've got 9 democrats vying for that opportunity, and if no one gets a majority, this could be headed to a runoff, which means we may not know who that democratic candidate will be

until may. but i did have an opportunity to catch up with the front runner in that race, congressman colin all red. i talked to him about that, and he said his message is not going to change, that he is going to be focused on ted cruz and really hitting him on abortion and those types of issues, taking his message to a general election audience regardless of if he has to do get out with his fellow democratic field for another couple months. notably, i did ask him, if president joe biden comes here, if you would campaign with him. all red did not give me an answer on that. i pressed him three times on that, and he said anyone who comes, his message is not going to change. so you see him really trying to make the pitch for voters. the woman i spoke to who voted for nikki haley says that if this race comes down to donald trump and biden, she kind of smiled and wouldn't tell me who she was a wart. but she did support trump in 2020. notably, when i asked her who she would support in the senate race, she said all red.

conservative on abortion and the economy, she leans much more with democrats and independents when it comes to some of the social issues like abortion. >> priscilla, on this point you are making in texas, the down ballot stuff is fascinating. obviously, the democratic primary, to take on the right to take on ted cruz, is a huge deal with big national implications. there's also crazy drama. soap opera level drama when it comes to texas state legislature and these vendettas among various republicans, getting revenge on their enemies within the party. there's a bunch of congressional states where we got members of the house of representatives, the u.s. house were potentially going to lose their seats in texas. with all of that drama as it were in the lone star state, as that translated as far as you can tell just anecdotally into being turnout, people having a high level of awareness about this primary and getting out the vote? >> yeah. i mean, it is not something

that is, among a lot of the voters. they have really been focused on the presidential primary and that big senate race. but as you know, there's a lot going on with texas politics here right now. one thing to note as it relates to the statewide races, a lot has been made of beto o'rourke in 2019 and how he was able to come within 3 point a beating ted cruz. the reality is, democrats you have not seen those types of margins since then. they have not won a statewide race in decades, though they certainly have that work cut out for them. >> priscilla thompson live in dallas where polls are about to close in 15 seconds. inc. you so much. that noise means -- in texas, there are counties in west texas where the counties will be open for another hour, so we will not get any projections right now out of texas. while some are closing, not all are. with that said, we do have polls closing in a handful of other states starting with

alabama. looking at the great state of alabama -- sorry, not starting with alabama. writing with massachusetts. thank you. that's not the order in which i was expecting to get this news, but there it is. the decision projects that in the state of maine, the republican presidential contest is too early to call. i'm going to guess the next one is massachusetts. there we go. doing this just because i live there, so it will be hard for me to go home. nbc news project the republican presidential contest in massachusetts is too early to call. next, we go to alabama where they project of the presidential contest is too early to call. next we go to the great state of oklahoma. there, nbc news projects that the republican race is too early to call. next we go to tennessee, where nbc news projects the republican race is too early to call. and again, we are taking a look now at the delegates overall.

you see trump their overall in the republican presidential race thus far, he's now got 347 delegates locked up. nikki haley at 43. up in the upper right-hand corner, there are 1215 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. no one will get there tonight, even with trump having that massive lead on haley, a lead that is expected, of course, to grow over the course of the night. he will not clinch tonight. now over to the democratic side. the decision desk looking at the democratic presidential contest in maine says it is too early to call on the democratic side in maine. now going on to massachusetts, nbc news projecting that it is too early to call in massachusetts. now on to alabama. nbc news projecting it is to early to call in alabama. i want to oklahoma. nbc news projecting it is too early to call in oklahoma, and on to tennessee.

nbc news projecting it is, you guessed it, too early to call in tennessee. looking at the democratic delegate math, which is always hilarious, right now, incumbent democratic president joe biden stands at 422. but look at that close call with uncommitted with 2 delegates on the democratic side. we just got a whole bunch of polls closing, all of which is too early to call. we have zero information on those states. >> and i just mention one thing about biden? the biden campaign folks, the way they are looking at tonight even though we are sort of giggling along that it's too early to call is that, i think what the campaign, what they will tell you is that what they are looking for is a sense of finality. you heard governor cooper say that. what they are looking to sort of and the fantasy football, there is this kind of fantasy side story that is happening among some democrats were they have this wish testing of this other campaign. it won't be biden trump, that

may be there will be some deus ex machina ending that removes somehow joe biden and it is someone else's want to be the nominee. and the campaign is hoping that super tuesday, the overwhelming victories he's going to head up against dean phillips -- no one knows who that is -- and even the overwhelming victory against uncommitted. what they are hoping for is a psychological shift among democrats. the way they see the gap between trump and biden right now, the way the campaign is looking at it, is that part of that gap is that kind of wish casting, that somehow, the end of jurassic park, when -- you know, when the t-rex saves everybody and they were really supposed to die, they are looking for that. they want that to go away. there is no t-rex. it's going to be biden. and once people accept that he is the nominee, they are thinking -- >> it's one of the most toxic things out there for democrats,

and one is still sort of the dna differences between the two parties in maine. the republicans, they think that trump is a lunatic -- i wanted to say that interview with nbc news that -- we cut it off, but she said she won't vote for haydn. she said i want to wait until i see trump pics for vp. republicans still fall in line, democrats still way to fall -- not just in love. because i think they do love biden. they want to be madly in love. >> it is so toxic for as many democrats as i run into just anecdotally, and i think it shows up in some of the poles, to be waiting about, casting about for some scenario that's never going to happen. >> there's also just a wild asymmetry in the levels of neurosis and anxiety. manifested time and time again, it's like a deep political truth about the two coalitions, about how anxious and health guessing the democratic party

coalition is. it's the intellectuals, right? compared to just the sheer lack of any of that, particularly in the kind of world that is purged anyone that might've had those traits. the old version of the republican coalition. everything but the timing is important for this week. one of the benefits of incumbency, which is demonstrated in political science time and time again, is the president of the united states gives a speech that tens of millions of americans watch. that will be time to give a reference each of the general election. the first speech after which it is clear to everyone after tonight -- not getting ahead of ourselves -- but i think the writing is on the wall to the two nominees will be. he will get to enter the u.s. capital and speak as a commander in chief and the leader of the free world and president of the united states about what his vision and what his record is. there's tangible benefits to incumbency that have been shown time and time again, and one of the questions that starts on thursday is how that boost a biden re-election campaign.

>> we have not had a march state of the union address and literally as long as i have lived. this is the genius work of the republicans in charge of the house of representatives. they know a state of the union address comes about when the speaker of the house issues an invitation for the president to come. the president can't just go, he has to get the invitation. and they'll say, we won't let him come in january. we won't let him come in february. the later he can come, the better for the presidential campaign. >> interrupt for just a moment because we do have information from the decision desk. we can now projected in the democratic gubernatorial primary in north carolina, the projected winner is the state's current attorney general, josh stein. with josh stein as a projected memory nominee of the democratic party and mark robinson as a projected nominee of the republican party in the north carolina governor's race, there are two big governors

races this year that are going to be in swing states or roughly swing states in north carolina and new hampshire. this north carolina one is going to curl your hair with a candidate as extreme as mark robinson there in a state that the democratic coalition and the biden campaign really does want to put on the map in the presidential race. with mark robinson on the ballot as a holocaust denier running against a man who would be the first jewish president of north carolina coming off of two terms, a very popular democratic governor roy cooper we just saw going for both biden and stein, the two men at the top of the ticket there. it just puts north carolina on the map lyrically this year, they have not been since the obama administration. >> it is the most winnable southern state, more so than georgia. it is biltmore for a democratic when than georgia was. back in '04, the folks in

america coming together, they had three states on their list of the states that in the future were going to be winnable. it was internet, georgia, and carolina. barack obama won north carolina. he won it merrily narrowly, 19,000 votes or something like that, and lost it only by 90,000 votes. 2.8 million people voted in the re-elect for cooper. only just under 2 million people voted for ted budd. so they actually are more interested historically in their gubernatorial races and they are in the presidential. gubernatorial actually drives north carolina voters more. it is the state where the turncoat democrat flipped parties in order to give them a super majority so they could deprive a state that overwhelmingly supports abortion rights to take away their abortion rights. women in that state are a huge commodity for a democratic campaign. so with the biden campaign does not spend money, you heard what cooper said. they didn't stand on a national level in that state.

they did not stand for sharon beasley the way they should have to's her campaign. she was an excellent candidate. we will not make that mistake again. i predict they will spend money. and the last thing i will say is, 16 electoral college votes. if they are in trouble in michigan -- and they are in trouble in michigan. going to have a huge problem with the arab-american vote and the muslim american vote . that's 15 electoral college votes. they need a state to pick up in case that state is north carolina. >> steve, i know you're looking at the votes coming in. i have to tell you, i am also curious about a state that closed at 7:00. vermont, the prospect of nikki haley making a run for vermont plus all of these 8:00 saves, what are we saying? >> vermont is coming in very slowly here, but you know, it not quite 10,000 votes, and that is about 10% of all the vote in vermont. this is a small state after all, population -wise.

you can see trump here with about a 6.5% lead statewide. i think the big thing we are waiting on here is this area right in the city of burlington, which is the largest city in vermont, and the immediate area around in vermont terms, good-sized towns in this area. you call it the burlington metro area making up 17% of all the votes give or take. but these are the kinds of places where haley should do her best in the date. the question here is, can she racked up some big numbers here, overtake trump, and she would need the second place to hit here right in and around the city of rutland. between that and the state capital montpelier, it's these three areas. and she build a big enough pad here to withstand a ton of very small towns here, working class, rural, white voter, all of these groups, we have talked

about them. especially in the northeast kingdom that we talked about earlier. you can expect a lot of big trump results there. haley has the potential to offset it here if she can win and get 50% plus one, she would get all 17 delegates in vermont. it is a very competitive race there right now. take a look in massachusetts with the poles of closed. only norton is reporting results right now. you see haley winning the town of norton. that is basically what that reflects. massachusetts, you think of it as a very, very blue states, and it is. and it's also demographically -- it's almost 50% of its voters having college degrees. that's a huge demographic that is been favorable to haley. the thing in massachusetts is there was a very small number of actual registered republicans in massachusetts. they make up 9%. the entire electorate of massachusetts, that 9% defies what a lot of people think of when they think of massachusetts. that's a very pro-trump 9%.

the republican governor of massachusetts a few years ago, charlie baker, was very popular overall with voters statewide. it was his second term, pate facing the possibility of running for a third term. he concluded he could not win a republican primary and declined to seek re-election in 2022. what's interesting is, you figure that 9% is going to be very big for trump. but how about this number? 60% of the electorate in massachusetts is independent. i don't think there is a state where there's a bigger spread between the share of voters who are independent and the share who are republicans. and this 60% can take part in this primary. a bit of a wild card to keep an eye on as a result her to come in. again, we just have very little over maine right now. again, you might think, new england, blue state in the fall. trump is won now twice. one of the two congressional districts, getting an electoral vote in maine both times.

there are some basically suburban areas, higher population relative to the date in southern maine along the coast. some of it almost in the boston suburbs. a long way from the suburbs, but still doable. overall, the folks here really shift more towards that blue- collar white voters without college degree demographic than in other new england dates. that looks like an uphill climb. >> i'm sorry, but we do have a call to make. in the great state of oklahoma over to the decision desk. nbc news can project winners in both the republican and democratic races for president in oklahoma. the projected winner of the republican presidential contest is donald trump. and the projected winner of the democratic contest is joe biden. we also have an additional call in tennessee in the democratic contest, where the projected winner is joe biden. sorry to interrupt you there. i know you are about to look at some of those results yourself.

>> what you just said about oklahoma, is wanting to call in mind. i don't think you'll be surprised by this, but -- you look at oklahoma and you say, that's probably going to be a trump state no matter what, but it's going to be an extra big win for trump. oklahoma is a closed primary state. no independence, no democrats. not a ton of democrats in oklahoma, but it does cut off two groups from haley that she's been able to tap into in other states. she can't do that in oklahoma. and again, that closed primary is going to come into a few other places. most notably, california. we talked about closed state. a simple majority in california to take every single delegate in that state. alaska will be a closed caucus there. there are a couple of places where haley faces an extra burden and an extra obstacle in terms of where her strengths are, just because it's a closed date. i did want to flag though, not every polling location will be closed until 9:00.

much of texas is actually closing at 8:00, and we are starting to get a fair number of results here. in texas, what they do is they can count up the early vote or most of the early vote and reported out pretty quickly and a lot of counties. what you see in the votes that are coming in texas so far, fort bend county, this is just outside houston. sugar link texas, very fast- growing suburbia here. you see there counting up that early vote right away. about two thirds of the vote in the county, we've already got reported out. go to the metroplex year around dallas, about three quarters of the vote here. the key here, what i just showed you are two of the wealthiest suburban counties in texas. i think this is a twist to keep in mind here, because he talk about how well haley has done in new hampshire, and south carolina, and virginia tonight outside washington, d.c. the, it looks like, and affluent suburbs. there are affluent suburbs on the map in this country that are not politically as moderate

or liberal as some of -- especially within republican politics as some of those places haley has done well. these are two very big examples. trump is getting 75% of the vote and what i believe is the wealthiest in texas. and again, these are the immediate suburbs of some major cities here. dallas, fort worth. in the case of rockland and fort bend houston. a little different here in texas. while it is an open primary, and while they do give out most of their delegates by congressional district, on paper, these are the kinds of locations where if you just look at the demographics and look to the previous result, you would say, the ones in texas are not doing for her so far what they've done in some of the other states. >> just your finishing there in texas, we do have another call to take with the decision desk telling us that nbc news will project that in the democratic contest in the great state of

massachusetts, joe biden will be the winner. again, we are still watching. interesting contest, particularly on the republican side in virginia. we've had a bunch of poll closings in the last few minutes. in the 8:00 states, were steaming toward another pole closing in arkansas and just under 15 minutes. we've got lots still to get to. house democratic leader hakeem jeffries is going to join us live. lots to get you tonight. we hope you will stay with us. we will be right back. back. ne. i own a lemonade and ice cream shop in florida, so i can feel and see that my lines have gotten deeper just from a year out in the sun. i'm still marie and i got botox® cosmetic. i did not want a dramatic change. i wanted something subtle. and i'm really, really happy with the results. it's still me, but with fewer lines. botox® cosmetic is fda approved to temporarily make frown lines, crow's feet,

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one more projection for you from the decision desk. nbc news canal project that the republican presidential contest in tennessee, the projected winner is donald trump. waiting on lots of results from lots of states where we've had poll closings, but no

projections yet. looking ahead, one of the poll closings we are anticipating at the top of this hour is minnesota, which is hosting an open primary, meaning that nikki haley can look forward to the prospect of not only republicans, potentially independents and democrats being able to vote for her in the republican primary there. standing by for us in minnesota is jesse kirsch, who is in minneapolis. what have you been seeing? >> yes, rachel. we have two different precincts here at this location. this is a church in minneapolis. that is precinct 9. were going to take you outside because we want to take you through some of the politics and that what is been unfolding. we have to do this outside of this building. between the two precincts, we are approaching around 600 voters here, we got just under 40 minutes until the polls close here. something that is at stake here and somewhat unpredictable is uncommitted. that is something we were watching in michigan and watching again here in minnesota.

people voting uncommitted in the democratic primary to voice displeasure with president biden and his stance on gaza. we spoke with multiple voters for multiple democratics today. one woman told her she was voting uncommitted and if she wasn't doing that she may not have come up to vote today. another woman said she wanted to do that now to voice displeasure without hurting the presidents chances up against republicans. and the third voter, a man who told me he voted for president biden and considered voting uncommitted but was concerned about how that would potentially impact the residence chances and momentum heading into the vault. so numerous voters talking about that, and we are going to be talking about some of the organizers about an effort around that here tonight, and one of those organizers telling me that your phone, email, text messages, and in person outreach, they are estimating that hundreds of thousands of people from the state of minnesota may have been contacted leading up to tonight around those uncommitted efforts. >> in terms of what you are saying, we got republican and democratic contest in

minnesota, and i think that the democrats feel very confident about what is going to happen for them in the general election in a state like minnesota. but how does that affect the republican primary tonight? nikki haley does have to look forward to the prospect of not just republicans, but potentially republicans and democrats crossing over and voting for her and what would be an open primary in minnesota there tonight. donald trump showing his standard level of strength, though. in polls and prospect heading into tonight. >> yeah. we spoke with a gentleman earlier who said he voted for nikki haley, saw her as the lesser of problematic options. the lesser of evils, if you will. that was his perspective on why he voted for her. he said he couldn't even tell you anything specific about her policy positions. he just knew that he wasn't going to vote for other people who were on the ballot. that's the thoughts of at least one personally spoken to here today. i spoke with someone on the

phone for the state republican party here, he said in the fall he can see this being a competitive state for donald trump of against incumbent president joe biden. he believes that the state and federal level, the actions of democrats could give some momentum to former president trump at the ballot box. >> jesse, thank you very much. you know, there has been a lot of discussion about the prospect of democrats doing a protest vote, voting uncommitted, voting no preference. we saw that manifest in michigan for sure. we've also seen that in previous democratic primaries with incumbent presidents. i mean, that was the noncommitted, the uncommitted, or the no preference vote when barack obama was standing for re-election in 2012. it was over 20% in north carolina, over 11% in tennessee. nearly 11% in massachusetts. this is something that isn't unique, but i feel like it's getting a lot more attention this year. >> the democratic party and the

democratic presidents have a unique problem, which is the ability to disappoint their voters more quickly than republicans do. and that's because of the activist government that democratic presidents pursue. they are trying to do more. they will talk to you about forgiving your student loans, and it turns out they ended up forgiving her student loans but not mine because of these complexities of rules. and so there's a possibility of a greater sense of dissatisfaction generally with the democratic presidents. and as the polls pointed out, republican voters are much more disciplined about this, and you cannot disappoint them just by failing them on one issue. for example, building a wall on the southern border. that's okay. we are with you. >> i'm still with you. >> when you look at the comparable thing on the democratic side in terms of policy, if you promise something as big as that, you know, on the democratic side,

and you don't do it, there is the sense of failure. in this uncommitted expression against barack obama, who is a great example of that, he managed to do something over the course of four years of the presidency that made those voters not so enthusiastic as they were in 2008. and then, of course, they showed up in november. the uncommitted is simply the most polite possible way you can say to a democratic president in the presidential primary, i'm not happy with you. we have seen the rude ways, starting in 1968. it is with real candidates running against the incumbent president who get real votes and do real damage. pat buchanan did it on the republican side. we have seen what it's like when it is something much more dangerous. >> we did just get one additional call. go to the decision desk right now. we have a new projection. i believe this is in the democratic contest in the state of maine. the projected winner is joe

biden. we are just coming up on an 8:30 poll closing in arkansas. before we do that, steve, can i check in with you briefly again about what is going on in vermont on the republican side? i know you said it has been coming in quite low. >> it is picking up, and if you look at any outcomes in the republican side tonight, it is in vermont. haley has just taken a lead and took trumped by 3 votes statewide by now. and we have more than a quarter of the voters in. that's more than a quarter of the vote, but we were talking about how haley was going to need to start getting a pad in the burlington area here, and this is colchester. this is a pretty good-sized by vermont standards town just outside of burlington. you see haley winning it by 12 points. again, a decent sized by vermont standards and haley winning that. of the city of burlington itself right there, south burlington.

you combine those two, that's going to be that single vote there tonight. it's not huge, but you expected to be haley, and it's a question of how much she is still waiting on montpelier as well. she still waiting on rutland. those are going to be her big opportunities to pad the lead. the other thing to note, too, this is a winnable state for haley right now, maybe the only winnable one for her tonight. we will see what happens in colorado, may be minnesota. this is winner take all with these delegates unless both candidates finish under 50% of the vote. i wasn't sure that would come into play tonight, but if we start having a race as more votes come in that look like this -- arco rubio's name still on the ballot getting a vote, other names on the ballot getting it pattering of votes. if they both don't get 50, these are divvied up proportionally. you got a call here looks like. >> vermont voters, this is your moment in the sun. we have a poll closing right now in the great date of arkansas. let's go over to the decision desk to see what they can tell

us about the ark and race at poll closing on the republican side. i believe where we are starting. the presidential contest on the republican side in arkansas, it is too early to call. on the democratic side of the presidential contest in arkansas, it is too early to call. and we've also got a projection in american samoa, or there is a democratic caucus only. there is a day republican contest today in american samoa. and right now, that is too early to call on the democratic side. so we got those polls closing, and our next poll closing is looking to the top of the our 9:00 p.m. it will be colorado and minnesota, and the last parts of texas that have not yet voted. we are starting to get into -- starting to get into a little bit of drama in vermont. as someone who is quite close to southern vermont, i live in the part of western massachusetts that is

essentially southern vermont. each town as we are watching those votes come in, i can tell you what beer is made in each of those towns and whether i have driven to that town to buy beer from that brewery and been able to project about. >> you are not allowed to leave tonight until they call vermont. if it's 4:00 a.m., you -- we are calling it. >> we have a change in the projection in vermont, i believe. which hopefully means that my days are numbered here. it's now a new projection in vermont. very interesting. too close to call. as steve was just saying, it was 3 votes between them. a moment ago, it was just a few dozen votes between them. but it is essentially a tie right now in vermont and the official projection from nbc news is that it's too close to call. >> who knew it would be drama. >> i kind of knew that. what is haley going to do? the same thing she's been doing.

why stop? >> the money keeps rolling in. she can continue to fund raise. >> she doesn't have another job. >> it's true. >> i guess i am just sort of running the mass on the outcome here. >> well, what are the reasons to run for president? people run for president to win the presidency. people run for other reasons, too. i don't think any of the third- party candidate that we have ever had ever thought that they were actually going to become president, except for actually ross perot and teddy roosevelt. you can't necessarily get into the mind here, but you can see an effective candidacy. just keeping -- keeping trusted republican voices about donald trump in the mix while donald trump runs for the presidency. >> i always think about this moment in the cheney biography where it describes his first big job in government, which is chief of staff of the white house. very young, gerald ford. basically, there is this enormous vacuum that opens up.

all the nixon people, they get rapture. they get thrown in jail. and then all of a sudden, you got a government to run. and you need republicans to run that government who are nixon people, because of the nixon people are gone and discredited, and so a very young cheney and donald rumsfeld and a whole bunch of people come in and get their start in republican politics then. cheney has very powerful jobs about what he would normally have, because of that. i do wonder, there is always some possibility of the rapture. of the thing just imploding. it never does happen, but there is some universe -- it is not that difficult to conjure in which say a second defeat this time around really does purge it from the party or there is some power vacuum, that to the people standing around -- well, nikki haley is standing around. i'm the one who got the most votes next to him.

i raised all of my name recognition and my profile and my dorner list and all that stuff. >> and i have to say, if you take nikki haley at her word and you listen to her about why she is dating in the race, the cost of her staying in the race is negative. media is asking all the time, why don't you go out? why should she? what is the cost to her staying in? unless she is trying to elect donald trump, which she is not trying to do. >> i would say two things that make it interesting for her to stay in longer. one, she continues to be a place for republicans to stay they want to go out on trump and stay republicans. not running as a democrat, but -- because trump believes in nothing and no one except winning, the longer she stays around, he may try to do a deal. get out and you can be my number two. it does become more interesting to have her in longer.

>> and none of that is -- nothing gets harder for her from here on out. chris, i'm going back to you because you have democratic leader hooking jeffries. >> joining us now is hakeem jeffries of new york. congressman, how are you doing tonight? >> good evening. >> what are you looking for on a night like this? or do you not even have the tv on? >> well, certainly it is interesting to see that donald trump continues to march forward for the republican nomination. he is a clear and present danger to our democracy, to our way of life, to everyday americans. and i think on a night like this, the stakes continue to be crystallized. this is going to be a matchup in all likelihood between former president and president joe biden. i think that's a matchup that once it is completely crystallized, the american people will understand that we can either move the country

forward under the leadership of joe biden or risk turning back the clock on donald trump in a very dangerous way. >> there some reporting that mitch mcconnell will be retiring as a republican leader in the senate, and he told people it was the worst congress he had ever served in, which is saying something. he's been in congress a long time. i any kind of metrics that we have, it's been one of the least productive congresses. the republican party has gotten up and saying, well, what exactly have we done? do you think the historically unproductive nature of this congress has any political effect outside of what it does to governing? do voters know about it, care about it? can you see it being part of this campaign as it was in 1948 for harry truman? >> yeah, i do think it will be an important part of this campaign, because you can establish a clear contrast. you have a do-nothing republican congress that has delivered no meaningful progress for the american

people. instead, it has been chaos and dysfunction and extra. that compares to the track record of accomplishment under the leadership of president biden, a historic congress in the previous two years prior to this congress starting. we got things done like clean water in every community, bringing domestic manufacturing jobs back home to the united states of america, lowering the high cost of lifesaving prescription drugs including changing the price of insulin. it's an extraordinary track record of accomplishment. now, we can contrast that with the do-nothing republican congress, and also make clear that moving forward, president biden has a vision for making life even better for the american people over the next four years. >> i want to ask you a question about your home state of new york and the delegation there. the fate of who controls the house this fall hinges probably are no state more than new

york, or four or five flipped, one just got flipped back. there are a number of high- level targets. there's been rounds of endless litigation about congressional maps finally after a complicated set of plot twists. the democrats have drawn a new map. critics often say it is basically -- they flinched. it is nowhere near as aggressive as it should be, and that it risks preserving a republican majority. i'm curious as a new york democrat to get your response to that critique. >> i strongly disagree. i think the new york state legislature did a good job in drawing the fairest possible map that is a meaningful improvement on the map that had previously been drawn by unelected out-of-town special master that broke up communities of interest and seemed to have been done in a way that provided a partisan political advantage to

republicans. now, that said, it was under the current map -- not the new map that we are running under in november -- that he decisively defeated a republican and basically swung the district by 15 points on the congressional election in 2022. and of the 5 competitive districts we had in new york, the swazi district was the toughest. and so i think we've got a lot of room moving forward, they will all be close races. but in the four other sucre competitive races we have, we got a lot of them to get the job done. >> final question for you on primary challenges. it has been your position as i understand it as the leader of the democrats, you defend combatants across the ideological spectrum and across the coalition. about $100 million has been raised by several pro-israel groups, often from large checks from trump donors.

republican conservative donors to basically take out and challenge a number of your members who they view as insufficiently pro-israel. what is your position on what is going to be a huge amount of money spent trying to take out some of your members? >> i'm going to continue to stand behind the members of the house democratic caucus were the first family, we are an enthusiastic family, but a family that progresses. and so i believe that the value of hass democrats range from the entire spectrum from representative ocasio-cortez and all points in between. and as has been the case under the leadership of speaker pelosi and other democratic leaders, we are going to continue to stand behind our members. >> think you for your time. >> while you are speaking with jeffries, i do believe he got another call.

let's hop over to the decision that square nbc news can project some winners in the great state of arkansas. starting on the republican side, the contest projected winner is this guy, donald trump. on the democratic side in arkansas, the projected winner is this guy, joe biden. we are going to take a quick break. we've apparently got this nailbiter in vermont where it is too close to call between nikki haley and donald trump. i will be checking in with steve about that with much more to come. we've got plenty of exciting 9:00 pull chosen coming out. we will be right back. back.

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is about a: 45 on the east coast right now, a: 45 eastern time. that means were halfway between the arkansas poll closing in the 9:00 pull closings that are going to happen in colorado and

minnesota. we've been talking about texas already. texas has splits. most of the state closed about 8:00, 45 minutes ago. the reason you don't get any statewide projections in texas is there are places in the western part of texas that have not yet closed. it is different times. that said, most of the state has closed. and for non-statewide races that are confined to the places where the poles of already closed, we can give you some results. some of them will be of natural interest, specifically the 18th congressional district in texas. this is sheila jackson lee, veteran congresswoman sheila jackson lee. a progressive force in the house in a very recognizable -- nationally recognizable democrat. the reason that this race was of interest and on the map in texas is because sheila jackson effectively left her house seat and was no longer going to defendant because she was going to go run for mayor of houston.

she did not win the houston mayoral race, and then decided, i think i'm going to defend my seat. other people it already jumped into the race, and quitting amanda edwards, was a future star in texas democratic politics and was running a very effective race there. people thought she was going to give sheila jackson lee a run for her money just because of the logistics and the timing around that. sheila jackson lee will be returning to the house, and texas to that strange circumstance. somebody new to watch out for on their bench of democratic candidates. i feel like i've been at msnbc long enough that i've been to the texas will someday turn blue wave. and then on the other side, texas will never be blue. >> texas used to be blue. texas could be blue again. >> i think the republicans lips as it could take a minute, but the republicans there hate each other so much that it usually

isn't the rise of another party. it's the weakening of the dominant party. i think nothing weakens a party like a civil war. >> talk a little bit about what's going on right now with texas. >> the texas state house is basically a three party operation. the republican party is into factions, which is basically the good old boys and the crazies. basically the state works -- the good old boys are hard- core. ideologically. they're sort of this contingent that was even there before they became magda and has always been the sort of process where the super majority is basically on these contingents. those factions are in the most open war they've ever been for a bunch of reasons, but largely because the attorney general, ken paxton, was impeached by the texas house and acquitted by the texas senate. after being acquitted, he and his associates are out for revenge. they are raining down on the people, chiefly on the speaker of the texas house was facing

this well-funded challenger has been endorsed by donald trump. you got john corrine and the texas senator and ken paxton talking trash to each other. he's going to be hard to run against for jail. as long as a cover texas politics, it is now the most pitched it's ever been, and the texas house speaker tonight in that contested primary actually loses this race. >> the paxton revenge campaign is targeting more than 30 incumbent republican state legislators. there is a separate revenge campaign being mounted by the republican governor of texas on a totally separate issue. and the revenge campaigns don't match. >> and what is interesting abou this, abbott is in that schematic. he is a good old boy. he was on the good old boys side, but he is also recognized where the power and the energy

and vanguard of texas politics are. >> i think there are 10 republicans he is trying to get revenge on. there are 30 republicans paxton is trying to get revenge on. paxton is trying to get revenge on one guy who abbott is trying to elect. it is absolutely insane. in the middle of this is the deeply unpopular incumbent ted cruz. he is about to get a democratic challenger based on what happens in the democratic primary tonight. that competitor is going to be riding off the coattails of o >> all of this is ourke. bait i 45, 46, 44% and in the marginal points matter a lot in texas,

if you are winning, running for office and trying to win for the first time, you have a huge uphill battle. there is a reason that ted cruz underperforms what the baseline should be for a texas statewide officeholder. he is not that appealing to a lot of people. >> it is has fantastic personality. >> he is doing like nine podcasts per week. i swear he does not even want to be a u.s. senator. he just gets in that big goofy chair and does that podcast. >> while we have been admiring ted cruz, decision desk summoned us to tell us we have projections in the state of maine. the presidential contest on the republican side in the state of maine, the projection is donald trump. we also had a projection in alabama, the projected winner will also be donald trump.

also, we have a democratic projection in alabama, joe biden is the projected winner. >> before i was still in republican politics, ted cruz was the most hated. it is tenfold on the republican side. it is not like texas hasn't had crises. they have had deadly storms and deadly power outages and he has been awol, on vacation. he has a lot of baggage and headwinds and he has done a bad job in those circumstances. >> he is sort of the beating heart of the state. >> to that point we will find out more information right after this break. we will take this break so we can come back at the top of the hour when all polls will be closed in the state of texas. we will see if we have projection not only in the

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this is getting to be the exciting part. we have holes closed already in vermont, virginia, north carolina, alabama, arkansas, we are about to have holes closed in colorado and minnesota and in the overall state of texas. we are heading toward those hole closings at the top of the hour. steve you have been watching votes come in. >> you can see the delegate totals keep adding up. the closest one we have been talking about is vermont. you can see trump with about a 2 1/2 point advantage over haley. we talked about the burlington

area being close. i love a close election as much as anybody. i think one thing we have got to keep in mind, we are talking about a very small number of votes in a state that is a massive outlier in the republican primary. the big picture story that is coming into focus with these stories, nikki haley has been campaigning with this idea of what she calls the 40%. the roughly 40% of republican primary voters who did not vote for trump in new hampshire or south carolina. she was going to be representing state after state. she is pulling far, far state -- short. in virginia with 60% of the vote in she is running at 33%. demographically, if she was getting the kind of support she will was getting, right in her

wheelhouse from what we saw in new hampshire and south carolina. if she was performing at those levels, this state would be a nailbiter right now. instead she is getting beat 2- 1. in north carolina 50 points behind donald trump. you take a look at tennessee, it is early here but about a fifth of the vote is in and she is running 50 points behind. there is a 67% threshold to get over. we did not think trump was going to clear that. right now he is north of that number. we are seeing numbers like this in state after state. we have more than 40% of the vote in for texas. she is not even cracking 20% and this is with some major, major suburban population centers. look around the metroplex where dallas is. these are supposed to be her best counties. this is the county demographically she was doing right -- quite well in. look at the numbers you are getting in and around the

dallas area. this is supposed to be one of the worst counties in the state. than the border counties were trump has moved voters in the general election and you are seeing him get up to 90%. near 90%. it adds up to that massive lead for trump statewide in texas. we are going to follow vermont all the way to the end tonight. we love close and suspenseful elections, but the big picture is, if you add up all the votes that have come in, she is nowhere near the 40% she was getting in new hampshire and south carolina. >> we're about 10 seconds away from pole closings in multiple states. we will see if we have projections from the decision desk as those polls close. we are looking at colorado and minnesota and texas. go to the decision desk, nbc

news can project a poll closing on the republican side. donald trump is the projected winner in the texas republican presidential primary. on the republican side in minnesota, in the republican eventual primary it is too early to call. minnesota is too early to call. staying on the republican side in colorado, the republican side is too early to call for colorado. looking at the delegates right now on the republican side, overall for the overall status of the republican presidential race, nikki haley with 46 delegates, trump at 566. for we go to the republican side let's look at the senate race. this is the incumbent senator ted cruz. he is the projected winner in the u.s. senate republican primary. the action is in terms of

democrats to run against ted cruz. in texas, in the democratic presidential contest in texas, nbc news can project that incumbent joe biden is the winner in texas. in minnesota, in the democratic contest, it is too early to call. in colorado in the democratic contest it is too early to call. looking at the delegate total thus far, and the democratic presidential race which will be my favorite part of the night the whole night, uncommitted stands at two. two on the way up. joe biden at 826. let's look at the texas-u.s. senate primary, sorry, we have one more. this is from an 8:00 p.m. poll closing time. in massachusetts donald trump is the projected winner. now do we have the democratic

projection for the senate in texas? there is one. too early to call. call. this is who will be to take on republican senator ted cruz. allred with the early lead with just one third of the results in. there is no characterization of this race. i should tell you that aside from steve kornacki, all the men have left. >> [ laughter ] >> you are at the girl gang point of the evening. alex, watching what you have seen tonight, the drama appears to be on the presidential side in vermont which is exciting.

>> waite park, in vermont. >> there is a bunch of down ballot excitement which has not been resolved. >> i think it is the frog boiling slowly in a pot of water. let's not lose sight of the fact that the republican party seems to be complete. the capitulation is astounding. some of these races like in texas where she very well could, given the dense, educated urban areas that are voting tonight. i don't think we should lose sight of that, but i am very interested in north carolina. i am interested in what is happening in the swing states that are going to be critical to the general election. north carolina is very important. slightly more important to republicans than democrats, but nonetheless, it is sort of the taxes of the 2024. when his north carolina going to fully realize it's blue potential? as long as they keep nominating

people like mark robinson, maybe sooner rather than later. it has been astounding and that is direct and correlates directly with republicans with trump. so bigoted, so controversial, they have elected a democrat two cycles in a row. >> i feel like carrie lake has been the poster child for a trump endorsed candidate taking and losing an otherwise winnable seat. she is the poster child for the republicans having made that mistake in the past. they are going to make that same mistake again in arizona. this is a lesson they are not learning. we keep seeing this with people they try again with. >> when you look at these states that joe biden needs to win and democrats to win, the

governors and how they are doing in pennsylvania, michigan, it is a tell that the democratic party is actually strong even if joe biden needs to make up ground. that is a way better place to be. if you look back at say 2020, the republican party was becoming unpopular. that was a problem for trump. that is a good place for them to build on. if they keep nominating these whacker do right-wing candidates that is a good thing for democrats. there is some drama about who will get nominations, texas has a bunch that are interesting, texas 23 is a race where the republican current member of congress voted for trump's impeachment, did the right thing on guns, supports guy marriage , and he was censured in texas. the person running against him

led the censure. if somebody from the right wins, that might be a pickup opportunity for democrats. california 22 is a very interesting one. there are only two people. it could be a democrat and republican, it could be two republicans, democrats have picked a democrat, spent a lot of money there. if they don't get a democrat on the ballot, that will be a disappointment but that is another pickup essential. >> we should not lose sight of the fact that in california where polls won't close until 11:00, there is some chance, a not impossible chance that a u.s. senate race you may in a -- end up with a democrat running against a democrat. because of that new primary process. the contest to replace dianne feinstein, that may be two democrat running against each other. >> and two democrats who are angry at each other. katie porter has been very

critical of adam schiff supporting the republican in the race. it could be a vicious race. >> you look at katie porter and adam schiff and --, they are three titans in the house. all three of them cannot be the next united states senator. to see a contest between them is almost a shame. they are all in credible talent. >> and butler, too. >> while we have been talking, we have another call to the decision desk. in the great state of colorado, look, the winner, the projected winner is democrat president joe biden. on colorado, do you have things you want to tell us? >> remember colorado is almost entirely a male in vote.

it is coming from two places. from denver itself all of denver, this is going to be about 5% of the vote on the republican side. you see nikki haley winning by about 11 points. then you go next door to jefferson county, one of the biggest counties in the state in terms of vote production, it is about 10% of all the boats coming in, maybe even a little bit more. this is a higher turnout. this is basically all the voting. a higher turnout than you are expecting. you see trump leading, here. the significance of colorado and especially this area right around and in and around, this is the western part of the state were grand junction's, mesa county, it is very trump friendly. colorado is coming in very fast. this picture may come into focus very quickly. before it does, i will tell you

the significance of colorado is this. we have talked about the education divide within the education divide. nikki haley has been doing so well compared to trump when it comes to white voters with college degrees. he has been cleaning up when it comes to white voters without education. there is no state where it is higher than in colorado. exactly half of the white adult population in colorado has a college degree. this is a primary that allows, it is not fully open, but independents can participate. colorado coming into tonight, if you asked me what the single biggest test was, if haley still had a bit of wind in her sales , and keep going, colorado i think loses -- is the biggest individual test. this is a state on paper that she should be winning. the ingredients are here. abe big, big suburban area.

affluent suburbs, as well. like i said, independents who are 44% of the electorate can vote in this primary. look we have arapahoe, let's undo that. this is a big one, too. these are counties, jefferson, arapahoe, adams county, she will have a chance state wide. we think we have all the vote in jefferson county. trump is ahead by about 20 points. the biggest individual county in terms of vote producing, that is el paso county. were colorado springs is. 15% of the vote will come out of here. demographically it is more favorable to trump than the immediately -- the immediate denver area. there is more of an evangelical and working-class white population here then you will find in the denver metro area. these numbers, early, haley was

running consistent. she would be able to parlay that into an outright victory in colorado. that would probably mean carrying denver. but right outside of it, jefferson is a biggie, arapahoe is a biggie, she is not carrying those. let's see what happens in adams county and douglas county. you can see we are basically getting all the boat one by one in these counties. this is a real test. post south carolina as this goes to multistate campaigns, it is that energy that was powering her, has it lessened? this is what you look at in colorado. it will be pretty powerful. >> as a technical matter for every one wondering if mail-in

voting , within eight minutes, we have 95% of the vote counted in denver. than 10 minutes of the polls closing in colorado, we have 95% of arapahoe county, 95% of jefferson county. it sort of seems like if you let people vote conveniently by mail in advance and allow elections officials to tabulate that not in a terrifying rush with tons of pressure, you can have efficient and quick results. it is obviously a terrorist plot >> slick con artists. >> colorado spends a ton of money on mail-in ballots. they are spending millions and millions of dollars on these programs to get people to vote early and vote by mail. the leader of their party is going out at every chance and saying, it is not safe, don't do it. >> -- ascended and republican politics --.

>> this is a purposely naove question. how do they make up for that it is not just that trump is committed to this message of voter fraud, his daughter-in- law who she, who he is installing, she was asked, don't we have to get rid of all mail-in voting and she says that's what my father-in-law says. if it is not going to be just trump but the rnc branded trump family, presuming lease they want at least a few more elections, how do they make up for that tactically for votes they are telling people they shouldn't cast? >> voters don't always do what he wants them to do. i am hung up on something you said. we are the boiling of the frog.

this is the night were trump is becoming the nominee. i almost choked. i was 16 when -- came out. it's over, lights out. now, it is like, it's the part of the state, the evangelical county, it is trump. it is wacky how completely saturated the republican party is with trump and trump is with the republican party. it is over, it is carrie bradshaw, it is so over. >> i cannot get over the fact that this is the state that produced the kind of republicans who would file a lawsuit to keep him off the ballot. that is colorado. and produce the kind of republicans, we had one by show last week and she was so refreshingly normal. she sounded like a person that had normal political instincts

and said you can have someone with 91 criminal counts against him and who also tried to overthrow the government. colorado is the state that is famous in the supreme court's analogs forever as the state that did try to enforce section 3 of the 14th amendment which has now been rendered inoperable by the supreme court just for him. the five conservative men all decided and went further and saying that they didn't want colorado to make that choice, but they also sort of inoculated him in every -- and every other insurrectionist with him and said, we are going to go further and say that colorado has to keep him on the ballot, which he is. the insurrectionist are insolent unless colorado passes a law that says they can't. >> can i say one thing to your point about evangelicals, i am

very interested in the roots of how evangelicals became such a political force. it was 1980 and it was school desegregation efforts in the bob jones fight against the irs that brought evangelicals into the movement. bob jones, christian university, and they basically outlawed interracial dating. there was another school involved in the suit that didn't allow black people in the school at all. that was the thing, not abortion, but desegregation was the thing that brought evangelicals into the political movement of the right wing under the auspices of religion and free speech and what christian institutions should be allowed to do. at its core, it was race. we think about evangelicals and trump as being so different, these godly faithful people and

this unfaithful person who has been found guilty in civil trials of sexual assault, the issue of race animates donald trump. the issue of race has long animated the evangelical movement. in some ways it makes sense that you are seeing the unity you are seeing today. >> i am so glad you are saying that there is a disconnect between a president who is a white working-class guy himself and who keeps doing all these things that disproportionately benefit white americans. and they hate him more. the more he does. it is because the most economically vulnerable voters tend to be young voters who tend to be more voters of color. they are economically vulnerable and they tend to hold the president to account. republican voters don't vote that way. they don't vote based on economics or the benefits they are getting economically from the president. they are increasingly, from the tea party on, they are voting

on race. on this idea of an invasion of brown people over the border. the idea that they can't get whatever job they want, a black person got it, therefore drive blacks out of the colleges. get rid of di. that is what they are voting on. it isn't about economics. >> no, that is why trump killed the immigration bill. that is why. otherwise, he can't run against the other and brown people and people who don't look like him like his base of supporters coming across the border and scaring people and killing people or whatever he is threatening out there. if you look at some of these exit polls, i live in virginia. immigration was the number one issue. again, these could change in virginia. >> virginia does have a border with west virginia. >> when i was in new hampshire, people were talking about the northern border as a threat. trump has indoctrinated people with the sphere of people who

do not look like them being a threat to them. >> in every election cycle when there is a democratic incumbent, we get reminded about the borders and the borders become a thing again. if there is a republican about -- in office, we don't think about it anymore. you make these things an issue, you make them into boogie men, you make them into something that grabs you in your bed at night. you make sure that nothing is ever done to fix either and you hope that people stop talking about them. is the same thing my entire adult life. >> the only difference now is they drop the every four years part. now all the programming about cities, crime -- >> meanwhile, on earth one, crime in america is at a 50 year low. but this is a very complicated

concept. fox news is right there. i will tell you one thing and then we have to take a break. what i have to tell you is we have a new projection from the decision desk. we are going to follow their lead to the great state of colorado which we have just been discussing on the republican side. the presidential contest in colorado, the projected winner is donald trump. i also have to tell you that very shortly we will be speaking with the governor of colorado. he will be joining us live. we are also still watching vermont, there is not a projected winner between nikki haley and donald trump. trump.

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ahh! impacting women. that is a big thing for me. >> cal students at the university of california berkeley wearing excellent go bears go vote shorts. it is 9:25 on the east coast. we have all closings. we have since had projections in colorado on the republican side. donald trump is projected to have won the republican contest in that state. on the democratic side, joe biden is projected to have one of that state. i will hand you over to my colleague alex wagner. >> joining us now is the democratic governor of the great state of colorado, jared polis. i wonder if you could tell us a little bit more about how the supreme court's decision on the 14th amendment as animated

voters in your state. donald trump's name never actually left the ballot, and it was certainly an issue that was litigated fiercely both in the supreme court and the court of obligate opinion. do you think it emanate -- animated democrats or republicans more? >> first, thanks to everybody who voted. i am excited about the turnout. colorado, carlos the country, so many voters had their voice heard. it is kind of like reading tea leaves. everybody sees something different. it highlights the role that president trump played on january 6 which animates voters who care about protecting the democracy and integrity. he always was on the colorado primary ballot work that was never in jeopardy. in fact, not only are they on it, but another group of people

are on it. i voted in the democratic primary. >> in addition to the people you never heard of, there was a line for uncommitted. that was not an option until december, i believe, when the democratic state party of colorado decided to add that option for voters in your state. can you talk a little bit about why democrats felt that was necessary and what it signals to the incumbent, joe biden? >> i can't speak to why it was included. i know it has been in prior elections, but i can say that president joe biden won overwhelmingly. i think it is good and shows his strength and there are people making a big show of voting for nobody. there are only a few percent.

it is an empty threat and people value his leadership. he is fighting to reduce prices and make colorado and the world more friendly for everybody. >> young voters needed to feel involved in the process and there was a feeling that an uncommitted section would get voters to the polls. >> looking at the percentages, obviously what excited people was joe biden. i think the none of the above had to get 15% to get a single delegate. it was not anywhere close. perhaps having another option drove supporters of joe biden devote more. just having competition led more people to come out.

i think there is less of an impetus if there is no competition. i am thrilled that even unaffiliated voters can vote in the primary of their choice. it is a great chance for everybody to be heard >> are you surprised with how nikki haley is doing given how well she could have done? >> you know, again i know she might've campaigned here a bit, i have not seen much advertising or promotion for either of the candidates. and obviously the former president has greater name recognition. i'm not terribly surprised to see that. is still is a competitive race and i think there are a lot of haley supporters and those supporting president biden in the general election. >> we were talking about colorado's best in class mail- in vote system.

what do you have to say for those who think that it should be gotten rid of entirely? >> first of all it is mail-in plus. if you want to vote in person we have outings dacians. the vast majority of people value the ability to vote at home, it is safe and secure and republicans and democrats in our state overwhelmingly support vote by mail. we have a lot of important issues for people to vote on and people really appreciate the chance to discuss it around the dinner table and send their ballot into be counted. >> have your roast chicken and mark your ballot. governor of colorado, jared polis. i just made up the roast chicken part, whatever you choose . >> whatever floats your boat. >> it could just be a vegan meat. rachel, over to you.

>> you did not know he was joining us at girl gang a clock. it is going to be chicken talk. out of nowhere. >> it will be hidden in a complement. >> an uncommitted vote on the dinner table. >> a little shout out to the plant protein. >> we have got a number of pole closings still to come. we have california still to come, utah still to come, alaska, california is going to be important, not only because we are going to find out what happens in the dianne feinstein senate race, but there is this interesting jungle primary system in california, now. it feels like kind of the wrong thing to say. but that is what we call it. everybody runs in the same primary in the top two

candidates advents -- advance. we could very well get a republican candidate who has basically not campaigned. his name is steve garvey. he is to be a baseball player. now he is a model or something, i don't know. he does not have a job that pertains to the senate race and he is not really campaigning, but adam schiff has campaigned for him. he likes his chances better running against a republican in the general election statewide in california than he likes his chances running against another democrat. the other thing going on in california, and we will start to get this information at 11:00 tonight, but we will learn it until the next few days because california's count is so slow, we make it a really important piece of information who is going to control the house of representatives. there are incumbents in california who will potentially lose their seats.

there is only a two seat margin for republicans in the house. there are all these interesting seats up in california with all these wildcards and this crazy primary system. what's going on in washington right now may change tonight because of what is happening in california. >> that is exactly right. has been so interesting to me is to watch the republican party and outside republican party groups trying to finagle who is going to be -- try to finagle who is going to be in the republican party a year from now. they are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to try to knock out trump republicans from these primaries so they can get more of a normal republican. it will help them in the swing districts, but also because they want more normal republicans. it has been fascinating to watch. as you just said, this in the next 24 hours, could have a

huge impact on who is sworn in and who could be getting the next president through congress next january. >> that dynamic that you are talking about in terms of seeking, for lack of a better phrase, normie republicans. it is hard to do that through the process of voting in a report -- republican primary. donald trump office campaign came into california and said i have very specific ideas about how you should be running the california republican primary this year. there are a massive number of delegates. so, it is a closed primary, winner take all. a very small portion of the california population will be able to vote. in order to get some non-

trumpycandidates through. it is a huge challenging multilayer issue there for them. >> the complexities of the republican primaries tonight are going to be on best display when we get to california. i am looking across the studio here, we are still wondering about what's going on in vermont were it does seem like there is a real race on between nikki haley and donald trump. >> this is the biggest point of suspense on the republican side. trump has regained the lead over nikki haley, it is about a two point margin for him. a lot of these are very small towns. in terms of where haley is looking for votes, one of those places , you can see it is trump read in this area. you do see the town around here.

really, what we are waiting on here, the biggest thing we are waiting on is the city of burlington and south burlington combined. a pretty good chunk of the vote. just immediately south of it, you should be very haley friendly areas. then she is just trying to withstand. there are a lot of towns, small towns with very working-class, rural, white populations. very friendly to trump. burlington waiting on it. that could be key here. we have talked about this as a winner take all state. most of them, you are seeing 50+1. it is razor thin. if they both finish under 50, they will divvy this up. that is the closest race we are seeing. we are also getting votes in

from minnesota. it is early here but you do see some of the counties right around many out list. again, the twin cities certainly big, suburban metropolitan area. that result is not encouraging for her. vermont, if you want a close race, go to the green mountain state. just ahead, we are going to take a closer look at one of the really big storylines of the night which is the governor's race in north carolina. we have projected winners in both the democratic and republican primary there. the republican candidate for governor in north carolina is going to be a national story from now until november. the republican and democratic artie chair is going to join us live. you will not want to miss this.

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nikki haley is irrelevant. >> why irrelevant? >> it is obvious she is just there representing the rino part of the republican party. she knows it and everyone knows it. it is self-evident. >> in particular, i mentioned concern about mr. trump, his

statements about nato are a threat to the security of this country. is cozying up to people like pearson and -- putin and -- are a threat to nationals security. >> north carolina is one of the big, big news stories that will emerge from super tuesday. it is not because of these super contests as we usually think of them. the presidential contest in north carolina went as you would expect, but it is the gubernatorial primaries that are going to be making headlines all over the country tomorrow. one way or another between now and november. i want to show you one more piece of tape out of north carolina. this is a portion of an ad that ran in the primary in north carolina. this was run by a candidate who did not win. a lawyer named bill graham.

he did have some high profile support including a u.s. senator. he did not win, he lost to a candidate named mark rahman -- robert -- robinson. watch what bill graham had to say in this had. watch what he felt the need to say to the voters of north carolina about his opponent. >> mark robinson, he suggested that the holocaust was a real. he promoted hitler propaganda. that is just plain wrong. i am bill graham. the holocaust was real, hitler was evil and we must stand with israel to defend the holy land and defeat radical islamic terrorism. >> when you have to say the holocaust was real and hitler was evil both in a primary ad, you know this is not a normal primary. mark robinson is not a normal

primary winner. he will be the republican nominee for governor in north carolina. he has in fact called the holocaust hogwash. he says beyonci is satanic. he says the moon landing may have been fake, he says the civil rights movement in the 1960s was crap and that martin luther king was communist. he also says there is a secret ruling claw that is part human and part reptile. he will be the republican party's nominee for governor. in swing state north carolina in a republican presidential year where democrats are not just hoping but planning to put north carolina back in the blue column. joining us live from north carolina. we are honored to have you with us. >> thank you for having us, we appreciate the opportunity. >> your party also picked a gubernatorial nominee, the

current attorney general of the state of north carolina. it seems to me looking in that mr. stein, even if you knew nothing else about him, you can take to the voters that he has run for attorney general, he has run for state office twice in elections where donald trump's -- donald trump one of the state twice. and won twice. that is a good track record to take into an election. i'm imagine that will be a focus of the campaign. >> we are so excited and proud to have josh's dying as our nominee. what you were describing earlier is what we are dealing with in north carolina right now. mark robinson is too extreme of a candidate to represent north carolinians. josh stein will be able to take the state. joe biden came within a 74,000 vote margin.

we are looked at as a battleground state this year. we are the only state in the country in which he came within a percentage point of winning. that is why we keep the white house this year. >> i want to talk to you in detail about that idea about north carolina being joe biden's closest loss. let me ask you about mark robinson. mr. robinson, he is almost a point of fun for a national audience because he is so extreme and has said things that are so crazy including the beyond staff and the reptile persons staff. him excusing the -- and sing the holocaust didn't happen, that is a just crazy, it is also dangerous. i wonder what your assessment is of how the republican electorate in north carolina,

knowing that about him, how they decided on him, anyway. he won resoundingly tonight. >> i think it is because they don't know about him. mark robinson has been the lieutenant governor of north carolina for the last four years. the part of politics that people don't really understand is how alienated the average voter feels. our job is to know that everyone knows who mark robinson is. that is why you can go to a website right now and read any sort of fact you want to about what he has said. mark robinson has denied the holocaust and called the lgbtq community filth. he said that if he was governor he would enact a total hartley abortion bill in north carolina when we just saw last year north carolina republicans were the super memorial -- super majority of the state. it is something that we have

got to look at. our governor, our president, is our state legislature, the court systems, it is everything this year that we are trying to make sure folks understand the value of and labeling what's at stake. >> you have earned a reputation nationwide for the work you and your colleagues are putting in and the effort and hustle happening to put that state back in the blue column. colum. hustle there to put that state back in the blue column. when you talk about that 74,000 vote margin and we spoke with governor cooper talking about this and it having been his closest loss and taking back in let the race proved to them that this is a winnable race and if i gave you a magic wand or carte blanche to tell the national democratic party how to run to win north carolina, what issues to run li advertisements on and what types of surrogates to tap and what to engage people on and wh

get people talking in the state, what would you most want? >> i would ask them where they are sitting in north carolina right now because i think the problem with democratic messaging is we think there are only one and i think north carolinians right now we have thousands of people dying from the opioid epidemic there and in eastern north carolina we have those that have restricted and made it so clean water access is not therefore people and people with broadband access as a hughes -- huge issue. it's a huge topic for reproductive rights in gun violence rights and chapel hill was the university campus in with our flagship school and they had two school shooter drills. these kids. their lives and i tell people that i have a national reputation but the reason i am so passionate this year and

folks need to understand north carolina as a battleground state because you are voting for the future of people that look like me in north carolina and look like young folks who are galvanized this year to fight for a state we know we can take back in the south in general as a region, 55% of black americans live in this region. we need to be sure that we are fighting for that area of the country and i am hoping that co the national democratic party gives us the resources we need because we know that barack obama won the state in 2008 and it's possible to do it again. >> speaking with conviction and being curtain -- persuasive. i know there is an audience i tonight and thank you and stay in touch. >> thank you so much. >> we do have a new call to bring you in the decision desk brings us to the great state of minnesota were i do believe on the democrat -- the republican side we had a projected winner with donald trump and in

addition on the democratic side we have a projected winner who is joe biden. we do have a quick break ahead and three states still voting at this hour with utah, alaska, california which means more racist call and more results to track and we still don't know which of the two replicant -- republican candidates have won in the great state of vermont. stay with us. there are some things that work better together. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings.

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welcome back to the special coverage of super tuesday where it is still tuesday and more super all the time and let's go to our correspondent at the orange county registrar's office and jacob, by my watch, voting is still underway for another hour or so, is that

right? >> reporter: it is. check this out. we will see them here and we were listening to a conversation earlier about how the primary system is here in the top two but no longer -- you can vote in person if you want and i was here five years ago talking to you on this very sidewalk in 2018 and stretched down the sidewalk the entire line was filled with people because in 2020 with covid and we started and moved to an all mail in ballot at least a permanent mail-in ballot and everybody gets one if they want one but everybody is doing a different thing and we have drive-through voting and i want to give a special shout out to our election worker and tell me your name again. >> sandra. >> reporter: you are a social worker when you don't do this? >> yes. >> reporter: have there been a lot of interesting people?'s >> yes. they are appreciative of the service and availability of this. >> reporter: thank you for being here and doing this.

as we wait to see if another car comes through, i want to tell you about and what is interesting about this, particularly about the senate race here in orange county, not only will the presidential race be intentionally decided, the fifth biggest election jurisdiction in the country because there are so many republicans here but also the senate contest and house races you mentioned and the senate races interesting because the system and you have seen adam schiff spend an incredible amount of money to essentially and he admits a strategy that he is spending a bunch of money to prop up steve garvey as his republican because he would rather face republican in the general election then face katie porter, fellow democrat. whatever happens, all of these member of congress are running for this senate seat so you have a situation where the house of representatives could very well be up in the year because somebody like katie

porter who in 2018 was part of the democrats who flip the house by running and winning in this county at this election jurisdiction and very well if she doesn't end up in the top two come the end of the night. we do have one hour, one minute and 40 seconds here and for people to keep voting and also we will see what happens. but even when it does it will happen here in orange county. >> we have been talking about the general primary system and it's not like california didn't invent it and it happened in other places but the idea is it doesn't matter what party you are if you finish is one of the top two people in the primary you have on to the general election and california has not done this for long and having profound consequences in terms of the contours of the race, spending and politics in the strategy as we see especially in this dramatic senate race to replace dianne feinstein. is it controversial in the state and it has been a radical

change in the way people vote and how do californians feel anecdotally that you experience with this change in in the way they conduct politics. >> confused. a lot of people think do they need to vote strategically if they vote for barbara lee who trails in the polls behind katie porter but instead potentially she has a shot of facing adam schiff in this primary and people call the jungle primary out here. and katie porter has called the campaign herself brazenly cynical and it's not something you expect to hear on the democratic side of the house of representatives but it has gotten acrimonious because of how you have to compete with another and it's not new and when gavin newsom ran in 2018, the internet will correct me if i am wrong but he did run a similar strategy and spend a

lot of money propping up the gentleman who ran against him in the finals of that election over the familiar democratic mayor of los angeles, who many people thought would be a shoe in to face gavin newsom and that runoff election. i think there will be an accounting after the election whether it was the most effective way for democrats to have their voice heard or have a healthy debate of ideas and it is a very important senate seat in the idea of a republican in a state that has a 2-1 democratic majority could have a runoff election in the top two system is not something a lot of people want to see is a possibility here, but that is when we are faced with tonight. >> it is high risk high reward strategy for adam schiff in his campaign to be pursuing that. i know we will check back in with you, jacob. thank you, my friend. it is great to have you there. i am sort of worried that jacob will commandeer a car. you know what i'm saying? why don't we see if another car comes. are you going to actually stick

your arms in the window of a car if one comes by? >> reporter: come on. come on. is this your first time doing drive-through voting? >> not your first time? >> no. >> what is your name and who brought you out tonight? >> to vote of course donald. >> really. rachel there is not enough time to have this conversation and i will you go but if i need a ride i may call you for a ride home later. take care. you never know what you get at the drive-through voting. >> we know that if jacob is there while people are dry by voting we know exact the what you will get and that is exactly what you did. thank you very much. >> she just said donald. and she was so proud. >> it was a 50% chance of

getting that answer with that particular district, but another places you would not. >> because it was jacob, we knew we would get an answer and if any of us were doing that right now, us stopping that car it would have been a start of a crime. there would've been an altercation that jacob somehow charms people into being like, happen, you want to meet my mom? >> there is a real no difference between on and off the camera and he is the same guy and sometimes he walks backwards and sometimes sideways. >> he wears socks and sandals on and off tv. >> we do have a call to make and the decision desk is summoning us to the great state of utah and the democrats held a primary in utah tonight and the decision desk can project that democrat joe biden -- sorry. it is too early to call and i

apologize. that is my mistake. but we do also have another call from a different state and texas and this is in -- i am sorry. i have made two mistakes in two minutes and i need to come down. this is the democratic u.s. senate primary in texas and nbc news can project the winner of the democratic u.s. senate primary in texas will be a republican congressman and he is a moderate and a very effective campaigner in a very good fundraiser, colin allred. he is the worst nightmare for ted cruz as far as ted cruz holding onto his seat in texas. we do have in utah a projected winner on the democratic contest, president joe biden, the projected winner there. i will say and i apologize for the confusion there and part of

that is that in utah they are running two different types of contests, the democrats running a primary that we just saw president biden project it is the winner of that and the republicans running a caucus in utah tonight. that doesn't close up for an hour and so my notes to self, they are completely illegible and i crossed my own wires. sorry. >> i wish people could listen to themselves when they talk about the adam schiff senate campaign. there are three prominent democrat members of the house of representatives who all decide to run for senate for dianne feinstein and that makes it a difficult decision. there is a republican who isn't very prominent but besides he is. so adam schiff and katie porter and barbara lee had a choice in campaigning. there was this really convenient choice which is when you are campaigning that you can run against the republican or run against katie porter or run against barbara lee and

adam schiff made the correct strategic choice that every democrat should've made to run against the republican because and let's get it straight. it is not a high risk gamble and it is impossible for a republican to win statewide in california and it can't happen. so adam schiff for katie porter or whoever ends up in this race with steve garvey, they are going to win and there is no doubt about it. the alternatives if if people were going to follow through what they are saying in this accusatory way about the campaign would be a preference, apparently for him to have spent the time attacking katie porter and katie porter attacking him and barbara lee and barbara lee attacking both of them so you can get two democrats running for the same senate seat in november in the most expensive state in the union and thereby creating the single most expensive democratic campaign other than

the president and what are likely to end up with is one democrat running for senate in california in an easy race and they won't need much money. >> in terms of the garvey elevating the republican there and in terms of -- >> i am sorry. people always use the word elevating and they don't use the word attacking. and that is a choice and that is a conceptual choice >> how would people even know that he was running and behold, steve garvey the republican candidate? >> that is true. and it elevated him but everything i said and put beside it is also true. and that is exactly at the same time so people want to ask themselves what you really wanted was barbara lee and katie porter attacking each other and then them attacking adam schiff and then adam schiff attacking all of them so

you could get two of them and literally what would be the most expensive senate campaign in american history. >> i will say i feel the tragedy here to the stunt -- extent that there is one in that primary in california is that barbara lee and katie porter and adam schiff are all extraordinarily effective members of congress and extraordinarily effective. >> i don't know a finger -- single voter who had a choice. >> the result of that is one of them will probably be a senator but all three of them will be out of the house. >> the fairness of it is that california should have a minimum of six senate seats. >> and here this argument was don't elevate the person and don't think of it as elevating but think of it as attack and apply this to donald trump and all the criticisms of we don't want to hear about donald trump or don't talk about him. this is why people have forgotten how he behaved when he was president and if joe

biden spends the next 255 days with this huge warchest of money he raised simply reminding the american people of every ridiculous offensive terrible thing that donald trump did over the last six or seven years, many of those people who are sitting on the couch are thinking about the election won't say trump got elevated but there was a reason to attack him and why we need to vote against him. >> i will say the most effective ads i have seen against donald trump this year are the nikki haley closing argument match so two of them now which are about what it was like when he was president. she made this argument overtly to viewers and voters during the primary that i was proud to serve as the ambassador and he was the right president at the time but she is arguing now to remember what a nightmare was for him to be the president of the united states and cutting together news clips and clips of him at the white house. >> by the way, the democrats

are facing a very tough election psych of the three and this is one of the tougher ones and now they will have to fight for a senate seat in maryland because the former governor is there to make sure that people take a chance and reelect in a fairly moderate former governor and give up a senate seat there. i think the point that he made is important to decide where to spend their money. because the california race is that they could save that money and save that majority because if, for whatever reason donald trump wins, the democrat has the only way to constrain him, not have him have full control of the government and not have a house and senate majority. democrats really need to save this senate majority and they gave up three winnable races when you do wisconsin and they can't make any mistakes this time. >> you did ask about the behavioral effect on california voters and here is my anecdotal

over the last 10 days or so of people sending in their ballots and all sorts of people calling up saying how should i do this. here is what they were doing. the latest poll shows adam schiff's number one and showed steve garvey's number 2 and katie porter's number three so people who couldn't decide and it was a coin toss for them a lot of them were voting for katie porter in the hope that she would come in second so they could delay the choice to november between adam schiff and katie porter. >> in other words it turns the voter into a politician. >> let's go to our friend steve and one of the races that has been percolating on the back burner all night is this contest in vermont where we still don't have a call and it still close to call. right? >> it is. in the grand scheme of things, donald trump has added 439 delegates to his total in nikki haley three and it is a

lopsided night, but not as you say in vermont because nearly 90% of the vote is in and we have been talking about all night about how that burlington, vermont area and burlington in south burlington combined is one of the biggest areas vote wise and here this is a few minutes ago and this is big in vermont terms with haley getting south burlington by a better than 2-1 margin and you can see net cost 854 votes and in the scheme of the selection is quite a bit and haley has jumped ahead of donald trump and leads by two point statewide and that is without the city of burlington reporting and you can expect the city of burlington will look just like south burlington in terms of the number of votes and the way it breaks in haley's favor. you can expect this lead to be padded for nikki haley and also i did mess that up badly but we

don't have anything yet from another place that you can expect haley to be getting the lions share of the vote and in vermont terms padding that margins of this the kind of situation right now in vermont where you would rather beat trump nationally but in vermont you would rather beat nikki haley than donald trump and one question to keep in mind is the final votes come in here and there are 17 delegates at stake in vermont and if nikki haley wins this state with 50.1% of the vote she would get all 17 and if she gets this with 49.9 she will have to split it and it will be 9-8 four her with the delegates so you have to hit that 50% threshold to take the mall and there are other names on the ballot with a scattering of support and that could be the final variable here as haley has taken a lead and you can see a path for her to expand this and i think it is the question of will she do that to an outright majority in

vermont. >> overall we are looking at 86% of the vote in and we don't necessarily know if we will get more or how they will report but we will be checking back. over to you. >> right now the national cochair for the biden/harris presidential campaign and the former senior advisor to the president and former mayor of new orleans. does the presidential campaign, in reality, between these two eventual nominees really start tomorrow? >> i think it started a long time ago. we said this would happen in folks about it wouldn't and it has been clear to me and many others that it would be between the future and the past between two candidates who are men very different from each other and visions for the country different from each other and you guys are talking about this earlier reminding people what the country was like with donald trump running it and i just want to remind everybody that 17 of his cabinet embers

quit and are now advising people to never vote for him again and what you saw in the last few weeks and then tonight izzy eviscerating the republican party as we know it in the party of reagan and bush in the party of cheney in nikki haley and mitt romney and all of these folks warning us about the chaos that donald trump caused and then you can compare him to president biden who you know wakes up every day fighting hard for the american people and the president brings people together and trump puts people apart and president trump said he will do more of what he did before and revenge will be his method of going forward. i think it will be a clear choice and people will go forward rather than backward. >> as you know a successful campaign manager was with us in the evening and he said that president biden has got to pick up some of these disaffected republican voters currently

voting for nikki haley who will be available to get in november and it won't be all of them but some of them will be available and you were among those voters in louisiana like nikki haley and you know how to talk to them and what is your coaching for president biden on how to reach that voter? >> i would never presume to coach president biden about anything. he is the president of the united states and he is the only guy standing who has ever beat donald trump. he will be them again. i think what you see in all of these primaries is that donald trump has a real problem. he has a real problem in places where presidential elections are actually won and lost. one of the reasons is because he takes the republican party as we know it and turning it into an extreme maga party that oppresses people and there is nothing more evident than this and him basically putting three

justices on the supreme court that reversed roe v. wade and took away the reproductive rights of women in america and as a consequence you see things like completely abandoning the right to have in vitro fertilization and people will turn away from that extremism and they will vote for joe biden in the future. >> new orleans mayor joining us from america's favorite city joining us, mitch landrieu. thank you. >> we are keeping an eye on trump campaign headquarters where remarks have just started and let's listen in. >> nobody thought a thing like this would be possible and we wouldn't have russia attacking ukraine. we wouldn't have israel being attacked or iran as you know is broke and when i was running thing they didn't have money for hamas or hezbollah and we had no inflation and inflation was destroyed in the middle class is destroyed and

everything and inflation if you look back over the history, hundreds of years back it was called the country buster and what is happened with inflation has been unbelievable and a lot of people say and a lot of experts have said the only thing that is doing well because our poll numbers are so much higher than joe biden's. he is the worst president in the history of our country. there has never been anything like what is happening to our country and today it was announced that 325,000 people were flown in from parts unknown and migrants were flown in on airplanes, not going through borders are going through that great tech barrier that i was with the governor of

texas the other day and we are looking at the job there but in the meantime they are pouring into california and pouring into arizona and those governors aren't doing anything and doing nothing but today it was just announced before i came out and it was unbelievable and i said that must be a mistake and they through 325,000 migrants over the borders into our continent so that really tells you where they are coming from and they want open borders and they will destroy our country. we need borders and we need free and fair elections and we don't have a country. this is an incredible group of people and so many celebrities and i won't reduce any because i will get myself in trouble if i do that because i will leave out most of you but this is a room chalk full of incredibly talented people like some of the guys standing in front of me and big futures and fat beautiful futures and i would love to be your age.

and we have some tremendously talented people in this room including tremendously talented political people who have helped me from the beginning and we have the safest border in the history of our country and we built 571 miles of wall and had mexico supply us with 28,000 soldiers and we wanted them and they said we will do that and i said yes you will and in the end they did and it was an easy negotiation and we had the safest border and now we have the worst numbers probably in the history of the world and it is sad to see what is happening with her cities. our cities are being overrun with migrant crime and that is biden migrant crime but it is a new category of crime and it is violent where they will stand

in the middle of the street and have fistfights with police officers and if they did that in that country they would be killed instantly. they wouldn't do that. so the world is laughing at us and taking advantage of us and three years ago we were at a level where we were energy independent and we will be energy dominance and today we are getting oil from venezuela. can you believe it? we are doing numbers on that and we are refining the oil and we have a refinery for that and i call it tar it's sort of we have like real stuff but we are refining it in houston. so for all of the environmentalists, you should look at that because all of that tar is going right up into the atmosphere and you ought to take a look at that and we have the only plants that can take tar and make it into oil. that is what it is and it is a shame. but we were energy and append

it -- independent and we would be supplying oil all over the world in a tragic thing happened during the illogic -- election. it was a tragedy. all of the problems you have the day, i don't think you would have had any of them and you would only have success. that is what ultimately will unify this country and unify this party and we have a great republican party with tremendous talent and we want to have unity and we will have unity. it will happen very quickly. i have been saying lately that success will bring unity to our country and it happened before we had the best economy our country has ever had and people were calling me that i would've said we will never happen and it will never happen. they wanted to get together african american and asian- american hispanic american and women, men, people with diplomas from the best schools in the world. and people who didn't graduate from high school.

every single group was doing better than ever before. it was a beautiful thing. our country was coming together. our country was coming together. and now we have a very divided country. we have a country with a political person who uses weaponization against his political opponent and it never happened. it happens in other countries, but they are third world countries. and in some ways we are a third world country at our border and we are a third world country at our elections and we have to stop that. we need a fair and free press and the press hasn't been fair, nor has it been free. but maybe someday they will be. they are being beaten up pretty badly. people are not trusting them. they are not believing them and it is a really important fact in the press used to be -- it

used to police are country and nobody has confidence in them and we have to get that competence back and it is so important for the success of our country. it is so important. so this is been a day where we have been waiting for and i want to thank my family for being here and it is a great family and we have a great family. and they had very easy and they say, thanks a lot, dad, we appreciate it. but they are strong and they are very capable people and they love the country and we appreciate it and i want to thank everybody on my staff, susie, chris, incredible job. an incredible job you are doing. i read an article yesterday where it said this is one of

the finest run campaigns that everybody or anybody has ever seen. that is pretty good, right? and we have no choice. >> yes, okay. okay. i will say it is a decision that we revisit constantly in terms of the balance between allowing somebody to knowingly lie on your air about things they have lied about before and you can predict they are going to lie about, so therefore, it is irresponsible to allow them to do that and it is a balance between knowing that that is irresponsible to broadcast and also knowing that as the de facto soon to be de facto nominee of the republican party, this is not only the man likely to be the republican candidate for president, but this is the way he is running. >> here is how to balance it.

we fact checked the hell out of him. >> it doesn't fix the fact we broadcast it. >> it is stunning to say this from him. we have had the best economic recovery in the best am -- economic world and he tells the audience about the poultry oil production and we are producing more oil today than we ever had in the history of our country and think about the american rescue plan, the infrastructure plan and we created 3.2 million more jobs than we had pre- pandemic and the problem we do have is inflation. so what donald trump does is pray upon the fact that people don't necessarily feel good and life is expensive. facts, here is something nonsensical and infuriating. when people's wages go up they credit themselves and they say i am good at my job and i got a raise. but when everything costs more, they blame the government.

wages are up and that's positive and one of the reasons that is happening is because of all the union wins in the last few years. president biden has stood with those unions. >> i was literally googling and i pulled up these four's and this is the gross domestic product. in 2019 it was +2.3% and in 2020 it was -2.8% which is the election year. that is the reason he didn't get reelected and that was part of it. in 2021 it was 5.9. 2.3, -2.8, 5.9 and 1.9. there is one factor and he just said it. donald trump had one job. one crisis and he said all of these things were perfect and you had one crisis, and it was called the pandemic and you know what you did, you bollixed

it and you did so poorly at managing your soul crisis and the one hard thing to do in the reason he doesn't look old like biden does is because the presidency ages you when you did the job. obama went gray because he did the work in donald trump looks the same as when he started because he was playing golf the whole time. >> you think his hair color is natural? >> the reality is he had one job, to manage this crisis and he messed it up so badly that they had to do this and people love this and 1 million bodies are in the ground because of how poorly he managed an airborne virus. >> if you want to think anybody in this country for that you think nancy pelosi and they got a few democrats -- republicans to sign on, but donald trump was clever enough to put his name on it. >> we have to keep going back because i do hear this a lot particularly among this attempt to pretend you will get black

voters and you have to ask the question that the hip-hop artist asked why did you have to have a stemi -- stimmy . it crashed and it went into negative gdp and people were unable to work or literally survive economically and people were going to literally lose their homes and apartments and everything and you had everybody locked in the house. the only thing you could do was due massive government spending. it is one of the reasons we are dealing with inflation, which is a necessary evil that got us out of the devastation that we are in, but one of the reasons the stock market does so well and not donald trump because traders think you will win, it is because we didn't have a hard landing. >> we had the boasts -- best

covid recovery. >> it was a tactical approach because we know it was coming and you could give him half of the screen and you could pre- right this scroll and keep rolling by. and it says, america is producing more oil than any other country on earth and the most in history. and the economy is stronger than it has ever been in bigger than it is ever been in the stock market is at an all-time high and you can just -- >> in a room full of celebrities. >> you just plug those things in and you know he is going to say all of this stuff repeatedly and put it there right beside him on the screen while he says it because they are the same lies over and over. cities are overrun with crime. crime is down at a 50 year low

and unemployment is at a 50 year low and just plug it in and rolled the speech and let those things cycle by why he talks -- while he talks. >> last week nbc news came out with a study that said in the cities that receive the most migrants crime is down and the doj has a report in the cities that have received the most migrants and homicide rates, robbery, there is that. this is new line and let's not forget the racism and xenophobia inherent in this and not only is it incumbent on the news media to correct the record but the biden administration because, thus far, they have played footsie with this narrative and there is a problem with the immigration system and it needs to be fixed and also central to the american economy and they are not single-handedly the cause of drugs coming over the border and they are not all

criminals and they are not laying waste to this project and it is incumbent upon all of us who care about the truth to push back and correct the record on a group of people who have been maligned in spectacular fashion. >> if you want to do another chart of when you saw the spike in border crossings because it was down to record numbers under george w. bush and president obama, it spiked again because of covid and covid is the spike again and you look at the chart. all of these crises that donald trump inherited in a strong growing economy and managed to ruin it by messing up his one crisis which was covid, which is why the border went crazy and inflation went crazy and all of those crises that joe biden has had to fix and joe biden's job creation rate is second only to bill clinton and he not only has fixed it but he actually has been more

successful as a domestic policy president than any modern president. all of the things that donald trump was taking credit for on the campaign trail are biden things and joe biden needs to run out there and take credit for it. >> the president has done a little bit of that while talking and we got a statement from president biden on these election results and may i read it to you? >> "tonight's results lead the american people with a clear choice. are we going to keep moving forward or will we allow donald trump to drag us backwards into the chaos that defined his office and i ran because of the existential threat donald trump posed to the america we all believe in. since then we have made progress. 15 million jobs, wages rising faster than inflation, taking on big pharma in the gun lobby and winning. but we have more to do. if donald trump returns to the white house, all of this progress is at risk and he is driven by grievance and gripped, focused on his own revenge and retribution, not

the american people. he is determined to destroy our democracy, rip away fundamental freedoms like the ability for women to make their own health care decisions and pass another round of billions of dollars in tax cuts for the wealthy, and he will do or say anything to put himself in power. today, millions of voters made their voices heard showing they are ready to fight back against the extreme plan to take us backwards. my messages this. every generation of americans will face a moment when it has to defend democracy. stand up for personal freedom. stand up for the right to vote and or civil rights. to every democrat, republican, and independent who believes in a free and fair america, this is our moment. this is our fight. together we will win." this is a statement from president biden and this makes some of the case you were just saying that he needed to be making with 15 million jobs and wages rising faster than inflation and taking on big pharma, taking on the gun lobby and winning.

>> it is the president have to tell people every single thing he has done economically and can i give a few examples? if i had my student loans recovered or forgiven, i would be happy about that and if junk fees are no longer an issue, that is great news and even though it hasn't been enacted they announced they will cap credit card fees in this is something that impacts people every day of the week. it is stunning how many still don't credit the administration and when drug prices just got renegotiated and that hasn't happened in decades and joe biden was doing that when he was in the senate 20 years ago. so we, like everybody else right police say this white house has to get their messaging down but the american people also have to realize, holy cow. look at all these great things that just happened for me and did they think that happened out of thin air? >> they do. and that is the problem. and for example when those credit card bank fees kick in, nobody will look in the people

need a look at that statement will say joe biden did that and they won't have any idea who did that and they won't know. >> we do have a crisis of civic some people actually don't know how these things change. there is a systematic problem that politics and we talked about this before is broken because the connection between politics and the things that happen in my life has been severed and people think when things go wrong they look at the quarterback like they do in football and when the team wins, the quarterback gets the credit and when they lose the quarterback the blame. the things that hurt them and make it harder to afford your life you know and when it helps and like you said i did great at my job but there isn't a connection between the way the government actually functions which is what democrats are good at and the way you feel which is what republicans are good at. >> the democratic message for joe biden is as simple as it is

positive and it's the best jobs market since the 1960s and markets are at record high and inflation doing better than every other major country in the world dealing with inflation and covid recovery better than every other major country in the world dealing with the covid recovery and drug prices, progress. wages, progress. most people with health insurance in this country that we have ever had. it is simple. there are not very many things that you can talk about in terms of the economic measurements that mean things but biden doesn't have bragging rights but the question is how the volume is set and whether people are willing to listen to the white house and listen to democrats or listen to the campaign when they say, everything that is getting better is getting better in part because of joe biden policies designed to make it better. that lesson and that disconnect you talk about in terms of politics being disconnected from feelings about how the country is going.

i do firmly believe and i do keep saying this and i think i am boring people but i do firmly believe that the messages, practical, popular policies we want to do normal stuff and literally donald trump is hosting a hungarian dictator friday and they are talking about building camps for millions of people. that is the kind of stuff they are talking about doing. and invading mexico and putting the u.s. army with live ammunition in the streets of the united states to shoot americans. >> they can do that because there voters don't vote on the economy and the people who are the most economically sensitive our younger people and older people have savings in a house that has equity and they have money but the people who vote for donald trump are not the poor but people who have money and whether they have a college degree or not they are fine

economically in the economically sensitive people are those who can't pay rent or young people who can't pay loans and that is a democrat. young people are often more people of color and more economically sensitive and have super high expectations. the first president for a lot of these young people are obama so they expect a lot and they have high expectations to like the president and they are supersensitive economically when things go wrong and it goes really wrong for them. biden has to speak to people who vote economically and trump has to speak to people who are feelings people in all they care about is how they feel. >> they go vote republican because they know their taxes won't go up and they know he didn't chitchat with the ceo of community. and even though donald trump speaks to the masses at his rallies, remember he walks into his house and said your taxes will go down and you have to remember mitch mcconnell the day was complementing kyrsten sinema about people because she

protected this interest and they are worried that they don't have joe biden in my pocket in a way that would like to. >> we haven't talked about her tonight and she is not up for reelection but it is amazing that we come to this effort and all the people in all the man- hours it took from all the people to become the first arizona senator in a generation to get in there and block efforts to make prescription drugs cheaper and to make sure the minimum wage didn't go up and that is what their legacy is in the senate and republicans are like, that was really are kind of democrat. all it did was make the massive bad for a long time in terms of capping boats but kyrsten sinema is likely to be replaced by a democrat who both like a democrat in the arizona senate.

we should go over to steve because looking over his shoulder it appears that something is happening in vermont. >> we are up to 87%, but we have been talking about when the city of burlington, the biggest would report and it has come in and as expect did it is about at 1000 margin and of about 43 points and between burlington in south burlington and by vermont standards we just had a lot of boats enough to expand that statewide north of 2500 votes and that equates to more than four percentage points, 4.1 and it is vermont as we said, a small town and we will show you a few small towns and one where we are waiting for results and it should be favorable to nikki haley in woodstock, vermont, if you have been there, a destination town and demographics favorable to her. it is calvin coolidge's hometown and we are waiting on that as well but overall again haley putting distance between herself and trump and not only

would you rather be haley then trump but within these kind of numbers and what is left to come and what we see on the map but i think the suspense now comes down to these 17 delegates because for haley to get all 17 she asked if finish above 50% and you need an outright majority and right now that would be just enough for her to get all 17 if she were to keep that in go higher or get them all and if she would win but falls to 49.9% and suddenly shifts to split that delegate pool so for haley, it is looking like right now that we will see if it is a late rally but i think the most likely scenario for haley is a question of if she can go 17-0 or will she go 9-8 and the delegate count but to put it in perspective, overall, that will go into this national delegate math and you can see in the grand scheme of things that she is looking for i think to be

able at this point to say she got at least one state and that one she could get is vermont. >> so you know how you are saying earlier that you would not have expect did the cliffhanger tonight that we will be checking in on over and over again and i will beat that. i do have something in it isn't the mariana islands. but good guess. do you remember in 2020 we had a big very vital presidential primary and a man named joe biden ended up winning but there were a lot of people running. and there was elizabeth worn in -- warren and kamala harris. in 2020 when american samoa held its democratic caucus, who one? -- 1 mike worn. but who came in second?

tulsi gabbard. it has been a bellwether for democratic politics for a long time now and in recent days, if you have been following political news and american samoa, you would've noted there was a democrat campaigning heavily for the america samoa caucus results in a person named jason palmer. and he is a venture capitalist. he was on the ballot in new hampshire and got 130 votes and he was on the ballot in nevada and got 512 votes in tonight nbc news canal project that the winner of the democratic presidential contest in america and -- american samoa is jason palmer total number of votes cast was 91.

>> 40 of them went to joe biden and 51 went to jason palmer and he wins the american samoa. >> mike bloomberg won and he has a lot of money and a venture capitalist and what is he have here a lot of money? >> some billionaires and fake billionaires get fake time magazine covers made for themselves to put up on the walls of their gulf houses. >> maybe it's as much of an argument for him to stay in this race is nikki haley. >> the vermont thing, washington dc and vermont are not american samoa, but the big sort of question is what next? >> nikki haley stays in the race to keep republican arguments against donald trump alive. >> what else does she have to do? >> that's a very good question.

>> she has the money so why leave. and it's about where are the donors going to go for her because she has huge ones and from my reporting, nowhere. they are happy to give her money because she is this great hope for them of getting back to this george bush republican. but when she is out, so are they. begrudgingly they vote for joe biden, but they won't give him the big check or they will secretly are not admit vote for donald trump but they won't write big checks because they are doing that no labels type of check for nikki haley thinking there is a chance. but could biden make a play for that? >> for the money, not so much but for the boats, yes. i think i said when we were talking to south carolina and it was a fortune 500 ceo who said and they were arguing, joe biden isn't pro-business and i said what are you talking

about? and i said you can judge him by the agenda and he doesn't spend a lot of time with the ceo set and that is an ego thing and i am not defending it. i am not saying they are right but i am saying that is how they feel so he could get their support in terms of their votes, but if you think about where the checks are going, they are likely going to down ballot races because they ridiculously don't want one party to control. >> a lot of republicans hold their seat that face far right challengers and we want to make sure we get this a do-nothing gridlock status quo. >> i think the most important choreography of this cycle is the exit choreography of nikki haley and what she does if anything to throw her supporters over to the biden camp. >> you keep asking why is she still in but why should she leave? >> i think i am the harshest critic of nikki haley's criticism of donald trump because he is a poison to the

republican party and he is destroying the party from within and to eradicate the poison. i think her criticism has gotten sharper in the closing hours of her campaign but is she really attacking the problem in the way she needs to? it's like saying chaos follows him rightly or wrongly and is that the long-term strategy to stop them? i am not sure. if her bit is 2028 and the ashes of the republican party and rebuilding it, trump has a long tail. if this is the best shot of ending the reign of terror, i am not that convinced. >> once she gets out, there won't be any choice and -- >> she ended up doing very well and after michigan she reminded people that donald trump has been campaign -- campaigning in michigan for eight years and she showed up a few times and left with this percentage of

the vote. >> we do have a call to make following the decision. the great state of vermont and the great mountain state has nikki haley as the repack -- projected winner. the state of vermont is now famous as the first state that has been won by nikki haley in the 2024 republican presidential nominating contest and so far it is the district of columbia in the state of vermont that have been won by nikki haley. right now with 93% of the vote and we will check in on this and she is over the 50% threshold, which means not only did she win the state but every delegate as well. i am speaking off the cuff and just talking about what i have learned from steve tonight is that the case? >> right now, we don't know when you can see with that call she is projected by the

decision to get at least nine delegates out of vermont and nine would be if she falls under 50 and it is proportional so if she falls under 50 it is an even race and she would have the one extra delegate and it would be nine for haley and eight for trump and the other eight remain undefined because if she finishes over 50, she gets the additional eight and there is a question right now of whether she will get the state 17-0 or whether it will be 9-8 and she has in the last time we checked it was 2500 votes and it expanded further over 3000 votes. again we look into the mid-90s in terms of vote percentage in and what we have seen here are some of these higher and i keep saying by vermont standards but the higher population the city of burlington and some of the higher population towns in the last few minutes that are very favorable to him you see 3000

votes statewide and it's 4.5 points and that number is ticked up and it was 50.1 the last time we checked and 50.3 i think maybe a decent chance here that she has built enough of a pad. there are a few towns remaining that could help her retain that 50.3 or maybe even build on it. there is a possibility with these remaining towns in vermont as they come in and we will see if it is a slow process to get them counted out because it is a diffused process to get the votes counted if trump is able to perform well enough to tug that number down under the 50% marc in which case it would be 9-8 and if he gets the win statewide and to the extent her campaign wanted to be able to have a win tonight in vermont was really her only shot but we can see will they get a sweep in the delegates or will they split them and that remains to be seen. but you can see in the context of tonight that there are

subtle distinctions in the color but the dark dark red is haley's color so that does light up and all of the other red tonight has been trump's shade of red and this is where the race stands and by the way play this out based on what is remaining delegate wise and trump right now is on course to finish the night over 1000 delegates on the republican side. we just did the math and if you cumulatively add up all of the votes cast in super tuesday contests on the republican side, haley has about 25% of the vote collectively across all of the states and it is a worthwhile metric because her campaign has been leading on this 40% idea and it's been the heart of her speeches but there are 40% of those who won't vote but that number is 25 cumulatively. >> 25% if you ask about those but the popular vote in all of this not looking like the delegates the butt of the

number of people she is getting in total one quarter of them? we we'll take a quick break and when we come back we will have poll closings and a lot still to come but nikki haley has won a state tonight and she got the state of vermont and what was that guys name? jason palmer has won the democratic caucus in american samoa and that is news you can use. and we will be right back. accessible way of them learning about religion and spirituality, that's not intimidating. somebody in the comments said, i have no idea how i got on nun talk, but i'm not mad about it. i'm going to teach you how to pray. i'm going to teach you how to meditate, how to connect with a higher power, because we need that. we need strength and comfort. nothing makes a gathering great

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welcome back to our special coverage of super tuesday. i will go right back right now to jacob at the orange county registrars office in california and last time we saw him we are protecting him from carjacking, but now he is back. jacob? >> reporter: i am lucky enough to be joined by the registrar and thank you for talking to us. when the polls close in three minutes 15 seconds, the first thing that will happen in this the tabulation room is everybody can see and you will push a button and something will change on the screen and what will we see? >> we will run a tabulation report so for every contest on the ballot we can report out what candidates got how many

boats. >> is that immediately and those are unofficial or are those official? >> it is unofficial until we certify. >> reporter: to clarify, that could be up to 28 days that the state gives california counties to certify? if it is close in the senate race we could be waiting?'s >> for the u.s. senate race you will need to look at the secretary of state website because they will combine the results together and ours will just be orange county. >> reporter: on this sheet for security purposes there was a name of somebody and it said the department of homeland security and i know you have agencies in cooperation in terms of interference with the election to protect from that it is there any indication on a federal or state level that there was any interference in the elections? >> nothing out of the ordinary and we will monitor attempts for people around the world trying to access people's

websites, but nothing like anything serious. >> you have one minute and 50 seconds i think before the polls close and thank you so much and we will check in with you in a bit and that is the man of the hour, the registrar here in orange county, california and there's a lot more to show you but we will talk about it after the polls close. >> i am sorry i said that about the carjacking thing and did i get you in trouble? >> that is okay. there are a lot of sheriffs here. and i wasn't carjacked and just want to make that clear and she said okay. fine. >> i meant it in a color wheel conversational sense like you are making sense and and it just look like that. and it could be anything. thank you very much. we are closing in on a poll

closing in california and as we have talked about, there are a bunch of things to watch for. first of all, there are a bunch of congressional primaries some of which could be consequential and some incumbents who could lose their jobs and those who seats are open in part because some of them are retiring but some are running for other jobs in those could switch parties and those could create unusual results and california's primaries are a jungle system and it doesn't matter what party you are in and if you finish in the top two you ascend to the general election in november. and they are expecting presidential results but also democratic senate primary results in the senate race that is vacated by dianne feinstein and powerhouse democrats from the house of representatives competing against one another to try to win her seat and we expect to get that first projection right now. the decision desk tells us that

in california in the presidential race on the republican side the projected winner is former president donald trump and in the california contest on the democratic side the projected winner is president joe biden. now in terms of what we will show next, weight with me here. the california senate primary as i was just explaining the senate primary in california is what they call a jungle primary and it doesn't matter what party you are but the top two vote getters overall will move ahead. right now that race is too early to call and is there anything else, control room, that i can say about that primary? we will come back to that and we have one additional projection in utah in the republican caucus. it is too early to call between

donald trump and nikki haley. i do want to ask the control room for clarity and these projections are not her own in the decision desk is airlock apart from us and we don't influence what they say and they are not aware of what we are saying but we have steve garvey and adam schiff as pictures along with the formal projection from nbc news that it is too early to call. obviously, there are a lot of people in this primary and why are we showing pictures of adam schiff and steve garvey? is that relevant or is that just windowdressing? >> there we go. too early to call and i appreciate that. you can see them and other candidates competing in the california u.s. senate primary where it is too early to call and don't read anything into the fact that we show the picture of those two candidates in the upper left of your

screen. it wasn't representational as to what way it is too early to call and i want to make sure we clarify that. >> important clarification. thank you for doing that. >> i am done. right now, i wanted ask you, chris and you joined us and we have since had the news that nikki haley has won the vermont residential i marry and i want to shout out our friend steve who at the very outset of this presidential primaries said looking at the demographics and the kinds of voters that seem to be attracted to each of these candidate i will say that it looks like nikki haley could win dc and maybe vermont and she said exactly those things and we saw nikki haley win dc in vermont that no additional contest and how does that make you feel about this overall debate we have been having here on the set and that you heard so much from the media recently about nikki haley? >> i guess there is an external

question about why she does it internally and i can't speak to the latter. i think the point is you run until you can't in the thing that makes her different than most is i think she could canteen -- contain the campaign and this intensity question is actually a really useful analytical one to think about with respect to donald trump. it goes like this. there are people out there and lots of them who will crawl over broken glass to vote against donald trump and you put them on any ballot and they will hate you across america to do it and they will climb a mountain or go anywhere to vote against this man. some of those people are traditionally liberals and lifelong democrats and some used to call themselves republicans and in fact some of the people who are the most invested in stopping him are people who even rather recently call themselves republicans and we all know a lot of them.

so what we have seen and i think this cascades out so this is true of a lot of people in the larger centerleft pro democracy majority and we see it in special election after special election where people show up because they view him as such a threat and they view the republican party under his as a threat and nikki haley occupies an interesting position. she is receiving that energy and it is being channeled into her in a way that breaks the normal rules for how this goes. the normal rules for this is if it becomes clear that you can't win all of the energy dries away and the donors dry up and you can't do anything and you don't get to make the choice because nobody is funding your campaign. >> what we see in one of the things that he is been talking about is that there is almost

an unprecedented group of americans that are just so opposed to donald trump and what he represents that they produced this incredible heat of activity that is right now finding its locus in her and not necessarily because of who she is but what she represents in this contact and i think that makes it possible for her to defy the normal gravity. >> i talked to a lot of those donors and they don't want to officially turn the light off and say this is the party of trump. you can give an example after example. they still want to desperately believe that the republican party even if there is ultimately a dead-end there is hope for and there is all this optimism and money behind her right now and it is why she is staying in but if you look at donald trump, state after state he is losing 30% of the vote to her and that is a big number

and even if she isn't getting the delegates this isn't a party united where people are getting worried about the uncommitted voters but they are just uncommitted and they are raising a flashlight to him and listen the michigan and they are not saying never and they are saying listen to us if you want a vote. and can i say one thing. it's not that she is just criticizing donald trump but also joe biden as well but the only thing that matters in terms of that is whether nikki haley can get some votes to him and nikki haley won't stop donald trump but out there trashing joe biden. and we are talking about the utility of the campaign. and why is she and if she is in there to truly stop donald trump if that's what you can assume and her work is to stop

donald trump. >> if she is in it for her own success does she think the criticism that she is leveling is sufficient to actually have the republican party turn the page? >> he is taking over the party. i think if you are really looking at the long-term or medium-term prospects for the party, you have somebody in there who will be challenging him. >> this is the perspective of this campaign and it is striking to me that that what they have said from even i guess after south carolina where they were like they want a forced choice between trump and biden and the biden campaign wants it to be a forced choice between two individuals and they don't talk about nikki haley and she doesn't exist in the world of statements they make and they sure as heck won't talk about anyone else but to them the key

to them getting back to 50+1 and doing this coalition they did in 2020. it would be a forced choice between the two men. and that is their calculation. >> do you think under this, do you think that nikki haley, being in for some of that anti- trump heat is hurting the biden campaign because it means that republicans that are repulsed by trump and there are some are not yet or maybe never will move their energies to donald trump and to joe biden which is the only way that actually stopped him. >> i think a lot of that is on what develops and i think it is on what she does and i think at the end of all this after being that heat sink and getting the people who are coming out across the country and a lot of them are coming out of here not because they are longtime nikki

haley fans but the question becomes what do you do with that energy that you have gotten and what do you reflect back on and whatever decision you make and when you go to the convention and make your stand the question is what is the messaging about that forced choice? and that will bar that. and go to the yellowstone club in montana and the most expensive ski resort in the country and give a speech for million dollars. >> i don't think it helps either way. >> she has to keep criticizing and just as a pragmatic thing and she is a republican and for her minimum price of entry is to keep criticizing biden and i don't inc. they necessarily do that. >> if she turns around and endorses trump that is actually more than delaying that. >> she was asked this sunday would she endorse trump which

she pledged on stage to do and didn't really answer. >> the answer to that question will be how nikki haley goes down in history whether or not she helps or hurts the republic. >> when she joins these boards she will say i am not allowed to comment. >> while we were have been talking. i believe we have gotten a lot of the vote in california and the reason we are looking at this is not because of the presidential race which already has projected winners but really it is because of this california u.s. senate primary. >> exactly. i wanted to show this because we did cross this off the exit poll and we have votes consistent in this primary with the exit poll so that is what it was showing so that is what was called this and you could see what is happening in california and i will call this but what is happening is they

have all of that vote by mail and as jacob was showing you they can press a button when these polls close and they can get a whole bunch of the vote cast before election day and they can get tabulated and reported out right away and you can see in county after county this hour they will start lighting up and we already have one fell swoop half the vote and big massive southern california county and we have half the vote in and here is an interesting thing with katie porter from this region of the state and you can see go down and barbara lee representing northern california in the house and this is in her national political territory but garvey is the maine prominent republican candidate in this race to the extent there is a republican vote out there and this suggests they will be gobbling up that

republican vote and you can see running in second and katie porter about three points behind and everybody else well into single digits and that is half the vote in orange county and up north also coming in very democratic county about one third of the vote coming in and he jumps to a big league and porter in second and garvey the republican candidate behind katie porter and again getting closer to barbara lee's medical turf and is she still running under 10% and there has been some discouraging signs in those boats also and we get into this and again about half the vote coming in and they had some big snow in the last few days but first place here and corralling that republican vote and adam schiff behind and you can see the gap here and look at the gap further back to barbara lee and you start at this together and more than 5%

of the statewide vote now and it has been regarded and recorded in these counties will light up in the next several minutes but here potentially for a second i will explain that from this point forward we have a huge massive chunk in the vote counting after this first hour or so a lot of these counties get slow and some of them you will get more in a considerable amount but a lot of them talking about not getting those two days from now and a week from now but if you remember back in the 2022 midterms control over the house of representatives was actually called by a california district it was in the outer reaches of los angeles county called for republican mike garcia and gave republicans their seat and it was called eight days after

election day and there were still other california districts at that point that were uncalled and i think the thing to keep in mind with california and these results in the next hour which will be fascinating is it takes things fairly decisive in the returns for there to be a call the night because there is so much. and garvey is the lone republican building a big number here and over third place and would that allow us to be clear in the next hour or so that garvey will be in one of those two spots going into the general election. based on what adam schiff is doing in these three county so far here and again a geographic range in terms of what is coming in, if this continues and other counties, a big if, but if it does will there be enough for him for people to say that adam schiff and garvey and we don't know the order but it could be those two and if it isn't clear tonight it may be a

while before that is clear but again there it is about 6% from those three counties and here i was expecting a few of them to light up they do think within the next few minutes we will have a lot more and by the end of this hour will have a lot of counties on this map. >> standby. we will go live to somebody at the vote processing center in california and i have a feeling if those come in while we are talking that we will come back to you and get an update. joining us now from los angeles county is gadi scwartz. what do you see? we were talking with steve about the speed of the vote and the expectations in terms of what we see as far as returns? >> we are closer to the source but we don't really have very many answers and we have some questions ourselves. and let me paint a picture here. this is the nerve center for the largest county in the country and this is los angeles is county and the brand-new

voter ballot processing center and it used to be an old electronics warehouse and it's now just this massive warehouse with a process all of these ballots and we understand 5.7 million registered voters in la county, all of them are ones with mailing addresses who got their ballots mailed to them and now it is a matter of seeing how many ballots you have today or voting and when they start coming in from all of the different polling sites they will come in through those doors escorted from all across the county from different sheriff's departments and even a helicopter that will be landing in the parking lot a little bit. when it comes to the numbers, we do know there have been a lot of ballots tabulated and last election some of those came back from early voting and this is making this question what is going on and in terms of when the refresh button will

be pressed, we look at the tally system and we do know it 8:00 it looks like there was a tabulation event and there is a number of ballots up there and maybe 672,000. we don't know what those correspond to and we have asked somebody to come explain and so far we are waiting for a supervisor. we do know this is the airlock center in a place not connected to the internet and this is where all of that tabulation has happened and the people who go in there are clear through an extra secure set of doors and everybody is standing on that side of the wall as this is somewhat the calm before the storm waiting for those ballots to come in and all of those ballots that came in from same- day voting in los angeles and this is where they will be sorted and extracted and the

signatures will be compared and those will go and tabulation but the tabulation as we understand it has already tabulated possibly the bulk of the votes because most of them have been mailed then and many have been returned and we do know earlier in the day it was something under 1 million that have come back. we are just hoping for the refresh button are hoping for that tabulation button so we can get some solid answers and we may give them a few seconds before steve kornacki but i wouldn't be surprised if he has some sort of crystal ball that goes into this area. >> you mentioned you expect some of the ballots to arrived by helicopter and can i ask why? who gets the privilege of that? >> catalina island. >> of course. >> apparently, that is the place to be for election coverage so if you want to send

me there, i will do that. >> that is very very very giving of you. we are getting in more votes from southern california and steve is polishing the aforementioned crystal ball and we will take a break and be back with more results after this. stay with us. feel significant symptom relief at 4 weeks with skyrizi, including less abdominal pain and fewer bowel movements. skyrizi is the first il-23 inhibitor that can deliver remission and visibly improve damage of the intestinal lining. and the majority of people experienced long-lasting remission at one year. serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections or a lower ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms, had a vaccine or plan to.

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primaries aren't done by primary anymore in california no matter what party you are in, if you place as one of the top two candidates in the same primary, in which everybody

runs, the top two candidates will advance to the general election in november. right now the decision desk tells us that nbc news can project that one of the two candidates that will advance to the general election will be adam schiff the current congressman in the former share of the -- chair of the intelligence committee and major player with impeachments and investigations and adam schiff will be there but who will be there with them by which i mean against him. congressman shift has -- congressman adam shift means -- he would rather run against the republican who he has much stronger differences within run against the fellow democrats like well-known democratic members of congress katie porter and barbara lee also in

the race. a now the question is between garvey, porter and lee in which one will be joining congressman schiff and we are absorbing that call and that is interesting and important in the primary and can you tell us more about how we learn that and what else we should be watching for and who will get that number two slot. >> it comes in pretty fast and furious and what is clear is look the margin for him that 17% of the statewide vote is counted. look at that margin is almost 80,000 votes but the distance between congressman schiff and katie porter and she is in third place in this is about 250,000 votes that porter lags behind and barbara lee has 78,000 which is 350,000 votes behind and right now the geographical of that because it's such a big state with

distinct regions but start here in southern california and we showed you orange county and this is here how much of katie porter's district is here but a district is based in part in orange county and there is congressman schiff leading and what should be katie porter's best part of the state we are waiting on los angeles county as you heard that report from gadi scwartz. it will be a big chunk of the vote here but work your way up the coast and here more than half of the vote is here and garvey a second and look how far back it is to katie porter and go into the central valley which is more a republican friendly area but you work your way through and you will see garvey leading and you will see congressman schiff in second and let's go to fresno county. you can see all the way through the central valley. this pattern remains. if we go into the bay area, you

see contra costa county with 30% of the vote in with adam schiff in first it is a southern california based congressman, adam schiff and there is the bay area congresswoman lagging far behind. and here is barbara lee at 10% here. we are waiting here and we don't have anything from san francisco county and that will be big in this area and you can zoom in and look across from san francisco to marin county a very upscale area and a big advantage for adam schiff and far back to katie porter. and you see this where you look even when you go into the sierra nevada's and you take a look at placer county and more republican friendly area but look at the distance between that and el dorado county and the same story everywhere here

and you even get to the very republican areas in the far for north of the state again and you expect garvey to do well and here it second and you just don't see the other two democratic members of congress. again one quarter of the vote and this lead here you see that. >> nbc news has made a projection as who the second candidate will be in the november general election against adam schiff and it will be republicans dave garvey, -- steve garvey. he was elevated in the republican field and they effectively singled him out as the candidate he wanted to run agai the election and nbc now projects the top two candidates in the nonpartisan u.s. senate primary in california will be adam schiff and as steve garvey. just a remarkable result. i don't want to let you go too

far away from what you're doing and i do have a special request if you don't mind. in the bay area east of the san francisco bay and alameda county which is where barbara lee would consider to be her home base and i am wondering if she is coming in second to adam schiff and she is in alameda county congresswoman and beloved at home and again part of the tragedy for democrats is to have a powerhouse well-known veteran in members of congress like barbara lee and katie porter not only on the ballot in the general election for the senate seat but out of the house of representatives having to give up their seats in order to make this run that turned out to not be successful. >> this is somewhat true in new york as well where you get these traffic jams in this sort of progression of democratic careers because you have states where when you get elected to statewide office, you stick around a while. there is not a lot of opportunities for opening so people are jumping when that happens. >> the description we have been giving tonight about what adam

schiff did here picking who he considers i think to be an unelectable republican candidate to elevate your in the primary and get that republican into the general election, and if that strategy sounds familiar, it is because you know the former democratic senator from missouri, claire mccaskill, who famously pulled off that caper in one of her own successful bids for the united states senate, she joins us with the communications director of the obama white house and both of these women are cohosts of the podcast how to win 2024 and they both know how. clear, i have to go to you first and i do imagine that you are cognizant here of the scheme at work or appears to be paying off in california for congressman adam schiff. >> what he did was just plain smart and there is nothing evil about it. he knew that garvey was the

preferred opponent and for one thing it is no fun to attack democrats and little bit different than my situation. in fact, it is relatively risk- free for the values i think that all three of the democratic candidates share. i do think that now we can safely call him just about almost senator adam schiff. that is a good thing for california and a good thing for america and the sad thing, as you said, we did have three good candidates and three great members of congress and that is always tough. >> i do want to know what the future is for barbara and katie and they are good communicators for values and different types of legislators and lawmakers and leaders and very different in the personality and presentation. but i would say remarkably effective communicators especially on core values and issues and i hope katie porter and barbara lee are around politics for a long time. let me go to you in terms of

the senate result but also what you have been watching over the course of the night. >> that is a big win by adam schiff and it is big number happening quickly and it is an interesting thing in this will be the first time in over 30 years that a white man will represent california in the united states senate and we had dianne feinstein and kamala harris and now that is a big deal. and then overall, i look at the exit polls and in california and virginia, north carolina around 35% to 36% of republicans and people voting say they are not willing to guarantee they will support the republican nominee and that says trump still has a problem with consolidating the report and it's interesting because let's assume that the new york times poll was correct and it said trump was given 93% of the

votes he had in 2020 and somewhere between 20% and 40% of the vote in the republican primary are not voting and who are those people and maybe they are independence, but people open for voting for joe biden. i feel i am coming out of this primary season feeling more optimistic about biden's room to grow and trump hitting some kind of ceiling. >> i have to give you the opportunity to say california senator alex padilla. >> thank you so much. senator alex padilla. >> let me ask you about the points made in terms of the overall strength of the candidates and what we are learning about in these primaries. >> the thing i take away from today is looking at the margins and looking at the party at which one is more united and all the states that voted today, if you look at the

results that you know right now, there was only two states where biden won by less than 70% -- 70 points. everything else. 80%, 82%. do you know how many states donald trump won by more than 70 points and there are more people voting against donald trump that are even thinking about joe biden and it's one that needs to be heard in important for the party and there is a republican war going on and playing out in primaries all of the country tonight where big money is going in against candidate and they have a problem in terms of how unified they are but not nearly as far to go. >> let me ask you about something on the set. we had some hot criticism of nikki haley staying in the race

and saying and highlighting the fact that haley's endgame if they think she will win and it won't happen and if she thinks she is doing damage to donald trump, there is no evidence to that and that he continues to talk smack about joe biden in a way that potentially suppresses enthusiasm for biden or possibly sort of served as a sort of heatsink for democrats they may otherwise put themselves in biden's camp but put themselves uselessly in her camp? >> let me just say i don't think it really matters. i think it matters for nikki haley's future and what does she want to do? does she want to make a bunch of money like she was talking about giving speeches and being on corporate boards and does she see a way forward in the republican party? no way. she is done.

she makes mike pence look popular in this republican party. i don't inc. she has a future in this republican party. i don't think her talking trash about biden necessarily hurts biden. i think she will look silly if she comes out and endorses trump and she will look pretty phony. not good for her political legacy if she comes out after saying the things she said and endorses them. >> i think she is helpful and i think it is helpful for voters and independents, republicans and democrats to hear a republican make criticisms of donald trump and even though she says bad things about biden, i think it is a valuable thing. if she endorses trump in the end, she will look like she has no integrity and i don't think that will hurt biden. what we need are effective arguments against trump and she is making those. >> she is making that from a

perspective that people think is a credible republican perspective in a lot of ways and you can't manufacture that and that has to come from an authentic republican place. thank you both and both the heavy with this. thank you. we do have much more to come on this extra super or still continuing to be super, increasingly super tuesday and we still have another poll closing coming up. stay with us. and if you have psoriai can help you get moving with less joint pain, stiffness, swelling, and fatigue. and skyrizi is just 4 doses a year, after 2 starter doses. serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections

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we did just get a statement from the nikki haley campaign and a spokesperson. they said, we are honored to receive the report of millions of americans across the country today including in vermont where nikki became the first republican woman to win code to -- two contest.

there remains a large block of voters expressing concerns about donald trump which is in the unity our party needs for success and addressing those voters concerns will make the republican party and america better. the statement tonight from nikki haley's campaign. today i quote in state after state the remains a large block of republican primary voters expressing deep concerns about donald trump and is that from the nikki haley campaign born out in the voting data as you see it? >> it is how you interpret it but i would look at it this way. we gave you a number a while ago and we have been keeping a running tab of the cumulative across all primaries and caucuses and what is the cumulative vote share for nikki haley and donald trump and remembering the talking points along the lines for the last few weeks is she has been calling it the 40% and using that term over and over in reference to her new hampshire and south carolina showings and

some of the numbers we have seen tonight. they are below that. i think texas is the most glaring example. she barely is cracking 15% and in texas and statewide with 80% of the vote and you go north to oklahoma and trump is over 80% and you take a look at arkansas and there is a rule in arkansas with the participation trophy delegate they call it and 20% you get one delegate and the rest go to the others and you get 1. she is short 20% so you go to tennessee and donald trump is approaching 80% and she did when co--- win vermont. trump is on pace to get 1100 delegates and when you add all of those together, she gets 23% of the vote and i would note that that number has been coming down as we monitor it in texas where you still have boats to come continues to drag that number down and she is south of that in california.

that could be the ceiling for how she ends up doing in terms of the percentage with 40% or 43% with what she has been campaigning on and the other thing is i don't have any insight into what she thinks her what motivates her or decision she makes. if there is a scenario where nikki haley exits this race in the coming days, one thing to keep in mind is given the delegate trajectory for donald trump, again likely to finish approaching 1100 delegates and now on course and will get enough delegates tonight realistically on course to crack the 1215 number needed to officially win the nomination in next week's contest on march 12 and that is the question for haley's campaign. do you want to be in the race and getting this percentage of the vote as donald trump officially crosses that number. is there a scenario where you want to issue a statement like that and what are they say about vietnam declare victory

and get out. >> thank you and clarifying is always and much appreciated and then with the delegate haul the night in the way things are going, it looks like trump is on track to clinch the nomination on the republican side and that is within the next week by march 12 and with trump coming close to running the table on the primary contest thus far, although dc and vermont and don't forget. we are inching closer to a general election rematch between donald trump and joe biden but in terms of fundraising, the democrats currently have a financial advantage over the republicans. joe biden started off the year with $46 million compared to trump's $33 million. perhaps that imbalance won't last long. but here is a scoop tonight with the headline of donald trump seeking cash infusion meets with elon musk. the new york times reporting that donald trump met with elon musk and also if you have

wealthy republican donors seeking a cash infusion, this campaign was within the last few days reportedly over the weekend and according to the times trump is now hoping to have a one-on-one meeting just with elon musk. and reportedly he has said he believes it is essential to the joe biden and november. elon musk is, of course, one of the two richest people on earth and could single-handedly erase any financial advantage democrats had headed into the general election and if he decided to her wanted him to play it that way and what would that mean for the world and the republic. >> and he is sure that money is not to pay his legal bills? >> we all sit here and think oh my gosh he is $83 million and he owes this much year and he doesn't have that money? guess what? whether it is elon musk or

other supremely wealthy forces out there, they would be happy to pay the bills for somebody who could be the next president but elon musk, how much would he like it if he then own the president? >> let's go back to mitch mcconnell and john roberts have crafted the universe in which we operate in brought us to a position where the richest billionaire out of like in 1890s gilded age cartoon in a newspaper in the correct -- and the corrupt person have a meeting and what is this implied in this interaction?'s it's hundreds of millions of contracts with elon musk through spacex and he is unbelievable amounts of interest in regulatory affairs and is currently suing to get rid of the national labor relations act of the new deal to destroy unions across the

board and render them unconstitutional and that's a current lawsuit he has filed onto. think about the sheer return of investment of that and it shocks the conscience that it would even be possible and only it is possible again because of mitch mcconnell and the maga court that you can even be in a position where you have an obviously corrupt set up. >> tesla is the only car manufacturer allowed to sell to consumer because one of the biggest strongest in this country was car dealership owners. the fact that he could back donald trump and pay his bills and be able to push donald trump around, it is an easy environment. >> he control starlink which is critical to ukraine and he could be the j.p. morgan of the current era and he would literally own a

desperate fearful man and i sat and watched several minutes of donald trump speaking from look like his basement. donald trump is afraid. he is afraid of going to prison. he is afraid of losing everything he built in new york or his dad built and he borrowed money from the russians or whatever. but he could be saved right now and all he needs is a billionaire who needs to own him and he gets to be president and he gets dismissed and he is basically, that is his mbs. >> he is running for his life and he will inevitably win once he has his money behind him and then i believe money and politics is a

>> when you look at state governments and federal governments and when you have these governments in power. they deregulate and there is something very clarifying about them together in the same room because it cuts through the faux populism or nonsense that masks fundamentally the interest being pursued by this. >> people often falsely say republicans are good for the economy because in terms of deregulation and in terms of big as soon as that will say a republican is a safer bet for me.

anti-democratic tactics is shame, and is transparency and people knowing the information of being able to react accordingly. that -- if that is all we got, then our institutions will not

defend our democracy. if we let things play out along these lines, our democracy will fall, and we'll become a country that doesn't have elections anymore, so we're in a situation right now where we can't count on the existing structures to just do this on autopilot. there's only one way out of this. you have to pick one. you have to pick donald trump, or you have to pick joe biden. there isn't a magic other answer. >> no, no. >> no institution, no criminal court or prosecution -- there is no magic in the media. there's people having to figure out which one of the candidates they want and what it means for the future of this country and going out and doing the work to make sure that that candidate wins, that means not only voting but literally doing what you can to make one of those two candidates win, and if you're not working for one of them, you are by default working -- >> with the biden campaign folks

said they're sending out two words tonight, cementing reality, and what you're saying is what they're saying. what tonight is about is cementing the reality that it's biden or trump. what joe biden was able to do is cement 80% and they hope to cement that for the voters, because their voters are the ones most fantasy prone, more so for republicans, but republicans are more disconnected from each other. they are actually having a fight that is bigger italian the fight inside the democratic party. you just have some democrats that would love joe biden to change his mideast policy. >> and the republicans will take care of the donald trump problem on their own side, not happening. >> our coverage will be continuing joined by colin allred running against republican tested cruz the fall. lots to come here on msnbc.

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